One day after the rebranding ceremony in Toulouse last Tuesday, July 10)Airbus was able to announce an order from US airline JetBlue had ordered 60 of the “new” jets.
In the first few hours of the air show the orders were flowing:
Airbus secured orders from Kuwait’s Wataniya Airways for 25 A320neo aircraft; Vistara, the New Delhi-based airline signed a letter of Intent for 13 A320neos and Starlux Airlines of Taiwan selected the A350 XWB for its future long-haul fleet, with an MOU for 17 aircraft, comprising 12 A350-1000s and five A350-900s.
Boeing secured; Qatar Airways for five 777Fs; Jackson Square Aviation ordered 30 737 MAXs, and DHL announced an order for 14 Boeing 777Fs, and purchase rights for 7 additional freighters.
The only cloud on the horizon for both manufacturers is engine problems from suppliers.
In the months leading up to Farnborough, Rolls-Royce has been grappling with two durability issues with its Trent 1000 on the Boeing 787, which has left more than 50 planes grounded. and the prestigious British engine-maker with a black eye.
Rolls-Royce is one of two suppliers of engines for the 787. General Electric, the other supplier, which powers the Qantas and Jetstar 787s, has no issues with its power plant.
The problems have prompted Boeing to move in a team of troubleshooters to help Rolls-Royce. work through the problems.
While Rolls is in the hot seat, Pratt and Whitney is only now solving its geared turbofan engine issues for the upgraded A320 series.
Airbus has about 100 new A320s parked in Toulouse or Hamburg production centres awaiting engines. These complex engine snafus go further than just the 787 or A320 deliveries and were also affecting Airbus sales for the 350-seat A350, Richard Aboulafia of the Washington-based Teal Group, said. “It’s a big issue for the Airbus [A350],” Mr Aboulafia said.
He believes airline confidence in Rolls-Royce has been dented and this could hurt sales prospects for the A350 with airlines such as Qantas, which is evaluating the Rolls-Royce-powered A350-900ULR against the new 380-seat General Electric- powered Boeing 777-8X for its Project Sunrise.
Qantas wants a plane to fly from Sydney to London nonstop with 300 passengers by 2022.
Most analysts say all the engine issues will be solved, but some are questioning the pace of technology upgrades and if they will affect the engine offerings for Boeing’s next proposed offering, dubbed the 797.
That plane will seat between 220 and 270 passengers in an economy cabin cross section of 2-3-2 and fly just 11 hours (9000km) on routes such as Perth to Tokyo. Business class would be 1-2-1 and premium economy 2-2-2.
This plane, which Boeing calls a new mid-size airplane, (NMA) is pitched at what is termed the middle of the market, between the 180-220-seat Boeing 737 — which can fly just over 7000km — and the 300-seat 787, which can fly more than 14,000km. That 787 capability requires a great deal more structure and weight — and thus cost.
All three big engine-makers have just pitched their bids to be part of the 797. But the concept is not new.
Boeing showed a similar cross-section for its 7J7 at the 1989 Paris Air Show. McDonnell Douglas, now part of Boeing, touted the concept in 1981, but at the time airlines were lukewarm on the concept.
Now they are keen to buy because passengers are crying out for more room for themselves and their carry-on baggage — issues the 797 addresses.
Boeing chairman and chief executive Dennis Muilenburg has said he expected the Boeing 797, with a range of 9000km, would be launched within a year.
He believed the market was for between 4000 and 5000 units.
The company said that there were 30,000 city pairs currently not connected yet by an air service that would be perfect for the 797. From Perth, the 797 could reach any city in Asia or the Indian subcontinent and would be perfect for Perth to Beijing and Perth to Ho Chi Minh City routes.
The headline-grabbing aspect of air shows are the orders. With a slightly lower than usual order flow leading up to Farnborough, analysts were wondering whether the normal number of orders were being saved for the show or whether the market was softer.
: “Are more than the normal number of orders being saved for the air show — or is it a softer market.”
However, one Airbus executive told AirlineRatings.com that “it will be a very busy show”.
Donald Trump likes to pride himself on his chutzpah but will he have the gumption to demand answers from Vladimir Putin on an issue that makes the Russians see red: the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17
The G7 Foreign Ministers — and particularly Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop — hope he will.
In a joint statement realsed ahead of Monday’s meeting between Putin and Trump in Helsinki and the fourth anniversary of the attack on Tuesday, the Foreign Ministers of the G7 countries once again condemned the shooting down of MH17 over Ukraine four years ago with the loss of 298 passengers and crew.
The Ministers representing the governments of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US joined the High Representative of the European Union in condemning “in the strongest possible terms” the attack on the plane by a Russian-made BUK missile as MH17 travelled from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur on July 17, 2014.
“We are united in our support of Australia and the Netherlands as they call on Russia to account for its role in this incident and to cooperate fully with the process to establish the truth and achieve justice for the victims of MH17 and their next of kin,’’ the statement said.
“In a rules-based international order, those responsible for unacceptable actions, such as the firing or launching of the BUK missile of Russian origin, which intercepted and downed a civilian aircraft, must be held accountable.
“To this end, we call on Russia to immediately engage with Australia and the Netherlands in good faith to explain and to address all relevant questions regarding any potential breaches of international law.”
Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop last week told the ABC she believed MH17 should be raised with Putin and Russia needed to take responsibility for the tragedy.
Asked if she was concerned Trump would not push Putin on the matters, she said: “Well, these are matters that I would raise if I were meeting with President Putin.
“The United States has its own foreign policy, its own priorities. We would urge the United States to not reward Russia for its bad behavior and certainly not invite Russia back into the G8.
“I think Russia has many questions to answer, including its involvement with Syria, backing the Assad regime and its use of chemical weapons. There are a number of matters that I would certainly raise with President Putin.”
Russia has strenuously denied involvement in the MH17 tragedy and has accused the JIT of ignoring Russian “facts and evidence”.
“There is a well-known style, a rough, clumsy algorithm,” Russia’s ambassador to Australia, Grigory Logvinov, said in a statement. “Dirty provocations are organized, and the guilty side is determined in advance.”
As Rolls-Royce continues to grapple with Trent 1000 problems affecting Boeing 787s, the powerplant used on the rival Airbus A350 quietly reached two milestones in recent days.
The UK manufacturer delivered the 500th Trent XWB engine to the Airbus assembly facilities in Toulouse, France, as the engine exceeded two million flying hours after entering service in January, 2015.
Rolls-Royce said the two milestones reflected the “the growing momentum and maturity” of the program, noting that it took two years to accrue the first million flying hours and just nine months to add the second million.
It described reliability as “impeccable” with a dispatch reliability of 99.9 percent and no in-flight shutdowns so far.
“We have enjoyed the smoothest entry into service of any widebody engine and we continue to see the engine achieving market-leading levels of reliability,’’ said Rolls-Royce Trent program director Gareth Davies.
The UK manufacturer continues to ramp-up production to meet demand and has more than 1700 XWBs either in service or on order across 45 customers.
Rolls now assembles the engine in both Derby, UK and Dahlewitz, Germany, and can deliver one new Trent XWB engine a day at peak levels.
The XWB engine comes in two variants: The 84,000 pound-force (lbf) Trent XWB-84 used in the A350-900 and the newer 97,000lbf Trent XWB-97, used on the bigger A350-1000 that entered service earlier this year.
However, the Trent 1000 engine issue is a massive headache for Rolls-Royce and primarily affects engines known as Package C.
This was compounded when the UK manufacturer announced in June that airlines with older Boeing 787 Trent 1000 engines would need to perform inspections because compressor blades in those engines may also be wearing prematurely.
The finding that Package B engines in service since 2012 could also be affected by a blade durability issue came as the engine-maker continued to grapple with the fall-out of the issue with its Package C engines.
The package B problem added another 166 engines to about 380 package C engines already under the microscope.
The engine issue has led to flight cancellations and aircraft groundings as airlines faced increased inspections, range restrictions and delays in getting engines repaired. Some airlines have had to lease aircraft to replace out-of-service 787s.
“We are investing in innovation, bringing new products to the marketplace, introducing disruptive technologies and new manufacturing techniques,” said Mr. Muilenburg.
On a mooted trade war, Mr. Muilenburg said that “aerospace sector drives economic benefit globally” and the US aerospace industry is a net contributor to a trade surplus with a contribution of $80 billion annually.
“We want a free flow of trade around the world. While there have been discussions about disruptions we have not seen anything yet.”
“But we are watching very carefully. We are very much engaged with the US and Chinese governments and we have a voice at the table. We are making our views heard.”
“US aerospace generates an US$80 billion trade surplus and both countries know how important aerospace is.”
On trade, Mr. Muilenburg noted that China’s COMAC builds parts for all Boeing commercial aircraft but is also a potential competitor with its C919.
“That is why we can’t stand still, we need to innovate. We should not be surprised that there is not more interest and more competitors.”
On the much talked about 220-270 seat Boeing 797, which Boeing refers to as the New Midsize Aircraft, .Mr Muilenburg was upbeat but gave nothing away.
“The business case is making progress,” he said.
Mr Muilenburg said he expects Boeing to make a go or no-go decision to launch in 2019.
Kevin McAllister, executive vice president of The Boeing Company and president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, noted that there are a “large number of city pairs that now need larger planes.”
“Many routes are also being flown uneconomically with aircraft [A330] that are too heavy and large,” said Mr McAllister.
Finally, on future travel, Mr. Muilenburg said Boeing sees a future for high-speed travel.
“We do see a future for supersonic/hypersonic platforms. High-speed connectivity is very important.”
Another new kid on the block, the Airbus A350, also has a perfect record and there are 182 in service with another 700 on order.
The latest models of the two biggest sellers in aviation, the Boeing 737MAX and A320neo family, also have fatality free records. Boeing has delivered 162 737MAXs and Airbus 359 A320neo family aircraft. The orders for these two aircraft are staggering. Boeing has sold 4,649 of the 737MAX series while Airbus has orders for 6,143 A320neos.
Now out of production, Boeing’s baby, the 125-seat the 717, which was formerly the MD-95, also makes the world’s safest list, which is an outstanding achievement, as it operates into many rugged and remote airports. There are 156 of the 717s in service and it is one of the most sought-after aircraft in the second-hand market. Airbus’s A340, also out of production has a fatality free record.
Another aircraft with a perfect record is the latest version of the 747 the -8 Intercontinental.
And the “new” 108-160 seat Airbus A220, formerly the Bombardier C Series, makes the world’s safest list. There are 38 in service with another 360 on order.
Another Bombardier model that makes the safest list is the CRJ700/900/1000 series. These regional jets, which entered service in 2001, seat between 60 and 104 passengers and there are over 800 in service operating into many small airports.
While not having a perfect record Boeing’s 777 has been involved in three fatal accidents none of which can be blamed on the aircraft’s design. One accident was almost certainly pilot error, another was shot down, while MH370 appears to be human factors.
The AirAsia Group is now on the up and up in the critical safety area and I would certainly fly with them without hesitation.
Three years ago, after the tragic loss of Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 from Surabaya to Singapore on December 28, 2014, which killed 163, I wrote that I would not fly with the group’s airlines because of my concerns.
That article was based on the fact, that apart from AirAsia X the rest of the group’s airlines were not going to do the comprehensive International Air Transport Association Operational Safety Audit (IOSA).
The IOSA audit covers 1066 parameters and airlines that have done the audit have a four-fold better safety record than those that have not. The audit is done every two years.
However, over a year ago the rest of the group’s airlines started the IOSA process.
An AirlineRatings.com investigation has revealed that AirAsia X has just had its IOSA certification renewed, while the operations in Indonesia and the Philippines “are in the process of closing the small number of outstanding findings with the Audit Organization and are both well on track to achieve IOSA accreditation, in due process, by or before October 2018”.
An AirAsia spokesperson told AirlineRatings.com that “AirAsia Malaysia is also in the process of closing any outstanding findings and is on track to achieve accreditation before the December timeframe.”
AirAsia Thailand will start the audit process in August and it will take 12 months. Other members of the group will follow.
The airline group has certainly had some bad press particularly in Australia where a string of incidents, some serious, has focused attention on the airline’s systems, pilot training and culture.
However, the spokesperson told AirlineRatings.com that “recently the AirAsia Group formed two independent internal departments – Group Safety and Group Operational Quality Assurance to oversee safety and quality assurance for all AOCs (Air Operator Certificates).
An Air Operator’s Certificate (AOC) is the approval granted by a National Aviation Authority (NAA) to an aircraft operator to allow it to use aircraft for commercial purposes.
“Since then, both Group departments have been working vigorously with all AOCs to strengthen safety and efficiency in all operational areas,” said the spokesperson.
Clearly, the airline is on the right flight path to dramatically improve its safety culture and this is so important as it continues its spectacular growth.
Today the Group operates scheduled domestic and international flights to more than 165 destinations spanning 25 countries.
Its fleet numbers over 160 Airbus aircraft with a further 349 on order.
AirAsia brought the low-cost airline model to Asia in 2002. It has joint-venture partners in Indonesia, Thailand, Japan the Philippines, India an, China as well as long-range partner AirAsia X in Kuala Lumpur.
Australia’s biggest independent regional airline, Regional Express (Rex), has accused bigger rivals Qantas and Virgin Blue of “rapacious plundering” of its pilot pool as it struggles to cope with increased global demand for aircrew.
Australia has been affected by a global shortage of pilots at a time robust growth in worldwide air travel has put pressure on training organizations to keep up.
Qantas regional offshoot QantasLink and smaller operators such as AirNorth and Australia’s iconic Royal Flying Doctor Service have all been hit by increased competition for pilots.
The shortage also prompted Qantas Domestic to recently announce a temporary return of Boeing 747s to transcontinental services.
In an open letter to regional communities, Rex chief operating officer Neville Howell said the airline no longer had enough pilots to roster its usual contingent of stand-by pilots.
He warned that any last-minute sick leave may result in flights being canceled or combined and promised the airline would redouble its efforts in pursuing all pilot recruitment options, including overseas flight crew.
“We will also be reviewing our network with a view to trimming our schedule where possible to conserve resources,’’ Howell said.
Pilot shortages are not new to Australia and regional operators are usually the first affected as pilots move on to bigger airlines to boost their pay packets and further their careers.
Rex responded to a round of strong pilot demand a decade ago by starting its own pilot academy, the Australian Airline Pilot Academy, in which it has invested $A35 million.
Howell said the academy had since trained 220 cadets who make up 71 percent of the airline’s first officers and 29 percent of its captains.
“Whilst Rex’s initiative is successful in responding to natural attrition rates, it is not enough to stave off Qantas and Virgin Australia’s rapacious plundering of Rex’s pilot pool instead of using their not inconsiderable resources to train their own pilots,’’ he said.
“In the past two years, these two airlines collectively have poached 17 percent and 56 percent of Rex’s first officer and captain establishment respectively.
“These two airlines are causing widespread chaos and disruptions to regional air travel by their selfish and irresponsible actions.”
Howell said Rex was acutely aware of the effect flight disruptions had on business and leisure travel plans.
“Rex apologizes for all past and potential future disruption to services throughout the network as a result of the industry-wide global pilot shortage,’’ he said.
Both major airline groups are already involved in pilot training and there is the prospect of further relief in 2019 when Qantas starts up its own training academy with a capacity of up to 500 pilots year.
Premium passengers have borne the brunt of fuel-driven increases in global base fares while competition is keeping prices lower in price-sensitive economy cabins.
But what economy passengers are gaining on the swings, they may be losing on the roundabouts with surcharges and ancillary charges helping to push up the cost of tickets.
The latest financial analysis by the International Air Transport Association shows the global average passenger yield, the average fare per kilometre or mile flown, has moved broadly sideways in seasonally adjusted terms since early 2017.
IATA said this largely mirrored developments in the economy class cabin.
“Yields in the premium-class cabin have trended upwards since mid-2017,’’ the report covering May-June said. “However, premium-class demand is less price sensitive than its economy counterpart, which has allowed airlines to pass through higher fuel costs onto premium passengers to a greater extent than in economy.”
However, the airline lobby group noted its passenger yield data focused on base fares and excluded revenue from surcharges or ancillary services.
“These additional sources of passenger revenue are helping to support the robust financial performance of the industry,’’ it said.
Airline bosses have been warning for months that fares will need to rise to cover the cost of escalating fuel prices.
Delta Air Lines said on Thursday it would boost fares and add fewer flights than planned as it grappled with a $US578 million jump in its second-quarter fuel bill. The US carrier plans to trim capacity on underperforming routes once the summer peak ends.
Jet fuel prices actually fell in June but IATA said they remained 55 percent higher than a year ago.
“Global oil prices have trended upwards since early2017, driven by a combination of a gradual reduction in oil inventories amid robust demand and tighter supply conditions, as well as geopolitical developments,’’ the report said.
“The price of jet fuel breached $US90 per barrel in May for the first time since November, 2014, but fell back in mid-June as major oil producers agreed to increase crude output. Nonetheless, jet fuel climbed again towards the end of the month and remains around 55 percent higher than it was a year ago.
“The oil futures curve has shifted up in recent months, but it is still consistent with a moderate decline in oil prices over the coming years.”
Despite the threat of higher fares, passenger traffic continues to rise with revenue passenger kilometres up 6.1 percent in May and remaining robust as airlines move through the peak northern summer demand period.
Passenger load factors are also up and breached 80 percent in May for the first time on record.
Delta said that June saw it fly more passengers than any other month in the company’s history with almost 17.7 million people flying on mainline and Delta Connection flights globally.
One measure of airline health that isn’t increasing is the global airline share price index.
That fell 6.4 percent in June to record the fifth consecutive month of decline.
IATA said the index continued to underperform broader market measures “reflecting investor concerns about the impact of higher fuel prices on profitability”.
The fall in June had been led by the Asia-Pacific, which was down by 7.6 percent, followed by Europe, which saw a 5.2 percent fall.
“The North America index posted the smallest decline over the month (-4.9 percent) but the index has fallen the most since the start of 2018 and relative to a year ago,’’ IATA said. “This reflects ongoing investor concerns of the impact of rising capacity growth in the region.”
Some big ideas on Big Data have won a Singaporean Air Force officer studying in Australia a prestigious international award.
University of New South Wales final-year Aviation Management student and Republic of Singapore Air Force officer Ian Low looked at ways to capture and store complex data generated by aircraft during normal and abnormal operations.
Low ’s paper, titled “Big Data – Thinking Big for Aircraft Accident Prevention”, focused on the concept of managing large volumes of complex and diverse data required to capture and analyze aviation safety information.
This technique has been used successfully by major airlines to improve on-time performance, increase fuel efficiency, and manage maintenance requirements.
The paper offered a new paradigm for aviation safety – a proactive data-focused approach to accident prevention.
It offers an alternative quantitative approach to accident investigation that could analyze all available information, not just the factors which are obvious to accident investigators, This could result in investigators uncovering other accident causal factors which may have otherwise been overlooked.
Low was awarded the Rudolf Kapustin Memorial Scholarship for 2018 by the International Society of Air Safety Investigators (ISASI).
He has maintained a high distinction average throughout his studies and has previously been awarded the RSAF Academic Scholarship from the Singapore government. He served 10 years as a military officer and is a qualified Sea Hawk helicopter pilot, specializing in aviation safety.
The Singaporean’s award honors the memory of Rudolf Kapustin, a former senior investigator with the National Transportation Safety Board who oversaw the agency’s investigation of major air disasters until his retirement in 1986.
Kapustin was an investigator in charge in the NTSB’s aviation division and senior member of its quick response “go team,” a rotating group of specialists who travel to the stark and grim sites of civilian aircraft crashes. He passed away in 2002.
The purpose of the Rudolf Kapustin scholarship is to encourage and assist college-level students interested in the field of aviation safety and aircraft occurrence investigation. It is funded through donations.
It requires students to be enrolled as full-time students in a recognized education program, which includes courses such as aircraft engineering, operations, aviation psychology, aviation safety or aircraft occurrence investigation. Applicants must have major or minor subjects that focus on aviation safety/investigation.
This award provides for funded attendance at an ISASI Annual International Seminar and a one-year membership to the ISASI. In addition, Low will receive tuition-free attendance at the highly regarded Cranfield University Safety and Accident Investigation Centre, at its five-day Accident Investigation course, at the Cranfield campus, north of London, UK.
A further prize of a tuition-free course is also provided by the United States Government’s Transportation Safety Institute as well as tuition-free attendance to any scheduled Southern California Safety Institute course in the US.
John Guselli is the past Chairman of the Reachout Committee of the International Society of Air Safety Investigators. Further information is available at www.asasi.org