The numbers game behind Hurricane Florence

by Jerome Greer Chandler
923
September 21, 2018
Florence numbers game
Hurricane Florence from space. Photo: NASA

More than a few flummoxed flyers had to cancel business trips, call friends and family and break the news their flight had been cancelled—all thanks to a storm called Florence.

It’s futile to blame Mother Nature for the mess but people still get angry — often unfairly — at the airlines.

In explaining the carriers’ rationale,  airline consultant Mike Boyd, president of the airline consultancy Boyd Group International, says:   “They did proactively cancel fights and move airplanes around.”

In doing so they mitigated the mess caused when slow-moving, meandering Florence made landfall along the North Carolina and South  Carolina coasts last week.

Read Chicago, London top the list of best-connected airports.

“They made the best of a very bad situation,” argues Boyd. “You lessen the economic impact when you act proactively. It’s better than having people stuck at airports. It’s better to respond early than to respond late and get caught with your flaps down.”

Airlines for America (A4A) tracked Florence’s path of destruction in slow motion September 12.

That’s the day airlines axed 148 flights from North and South Carolina airports, to or from smaller cities such as Wilmington, Jacksonville and Fayetteville—these three in North Carolina.

One day later, Thursday, September 13th airlines cut 560 flights.

By Friday the 14th Florence had begun her glacially slow turn to the left, imperiling sun and fun spots such as Myrtle Beach, South Carolina as well as historic Charleston, South Carolina. That turn prompted carriers to cut 740 flights.

Cancellations spiked at 796 flights Saturday, September 15 as the by now tropical storm turned once more and headed inland.

Sunday the 16th saw the dissipating storm force 608 cancelations.

By Monday, September 17,  A4A says the cancelation numbers had fallen to 134 at Carolina airports.

Standing alone these flight numbers are significant, but seen in context they pale at what transpired last hurricane season when Harvey Irma and Maria hit the U.S. or its territory.

A4A spokeswoman Alison McAfee says the trio’s onslaughts “spawned multiple weeks and approximately 33,000 cancellations were attributable to the storms. There were disruptions even when the storms passed. Puerto Rico is still recovering.”