Boeing predicts Airbus will not build all its A380 orders

Boeing predicts that Airbus will not deliver its backlog of A380s suggesting the super jumbo is just too big for the market.

Boeing VP of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes Randy Tinseth told media at the Paris Air Show that “we do not believe that Airbus will deliver its [A380] backlog.”

“Mr Tinseth said that the A380 is simply too big for the market.

Read: The world needs more super jumbos.

He pointed out that in 1997 Boeing and Airbus both forecast a far greater number of very large aircraft being delivered over the next 20 years.

However, Mr Tinseth said that, while Boeing got the overall number of aircraft right at around 23,000 the mix has been different with far more narrow body (737/A320) and smaller twin aisles like the 787, 777 and A330 being delivered. 

“We have adjusted our forecasts along the way but Airbus has not,” said Mr Tinseth.

Airbus has sold 317 A380s and has delivered 213. 

"The market is especially hungry for single-aisle airplanes as more people start traveling by air."    

Mr Tinseth said that Boeing’s forecasts have been “amazingly accurate” and that accuracy gives the company confidence on forward predictions.  

The Boeing 20-year forecast projects 41,030 new aircraft, valued at US$6.1 trillion with total airplane demand rising 3.6 percent over last year's forecast.

"Passenger traffic has been very strong so far this year, and we expect to see it grow 4.7 percent each year over the next two decades," said Mr Tinseth.

The single-aisle segment will see the most growth over the forecast, fueled by low-cost carriers and emerging markets. 29,530 new aircraft will be needed in this segment, an increase of almost 5 percent over last year.

The forecast for the widebody segment includes 9,130 aircraft, with a large wave of potential replacement demand beginning early in the next decade. With more airlines shifting to small and medium/large widebody airplanes like the 787 and 777X, the primary demand for very large airplanes going forward will be in the cargo market. 

Boeing projects the need for 920 new production widebody freighters over the forecast period.

The aerospace company said that the Asia market, including China, will continue to lead the way in total aircraft deliveries over the next two decades. 

Worldwide, 57 percent of the new deliveries will be for airline growth, while 43 percent will be for replacement of older airplanes with new, more fuel-efficient jets.

Boeing's Current Market Outlook is the longest running jet forecast and regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry.