Aviation and the world economy have proved incredibly resilient to shocks – whether a virus, war or financial.

Over the past 30 years airlines, which are the barometer of the world economy, have endured many shocks such as two Iraq Wars, Asian Currency Crisis, Bird Flu, 9/11, SARS 1 and 11, Swine Flu, MERS and the GFC.

Those shocks, however, have not stopped the doubling of airline growth every 15 years over the past 30 years according to the International Civil Aviation Organization.

In fact, ever since 1950 global air passenger traffic has reverted to an underlying growth path over the long term aftershocks.

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According to an International Air Transport Association report, “Global Air Passenger Markets; Riding Out Periods of Turbulence, in the years surrounding the four most notable shocks to global aviation, global air traffic was well above the trend level, suggesting that the effects of each shock may be overstated.

However, each shock is different it says.

“The 1979 oil shock saw the shallowest, but longest-lasting, downturn, with the global recession of the early 1980s accounting for the persistence of slower growth until 1987.”

The relative drops in passenger traffic were deepest following the combined 2000–2001 shock of the dotcom bust and 9/11, and the 2008 shock of the global financial crisis—but in both cases, traffic had returned to its trend level within four years.

The report warns however that “while the industry has historically been able to constantly adapt its operations and business models to new challenges and external shocks, it should not be taken for granted that resilience will be always automatic.”

It says that the industry’s ability to bounce back from future unanticipated shocks will be influenced by factors outside its control, most notably the regulatory environment.

“A patchwork approach, consisting of uncoordinated country or region-specific regulations, reduces the industry’s ability to respond to shocks.

And in some areas, there appears to be a bounce back.

According to the Official Airline Guide (OAG) 2.9 million scheduled seats or 18,200 flights have been added back into the Chinese domestic market which places China back as the second-largest market in the world.

OAG says that of the 2.9 million scheduled seats returning to the Chinese market all but 3,000 are on domestic services with China Southern Airlines adding back 684,000 seats and China Eastern 566,000. Reports from industry sources suggest that the dramatic capacity recovery has led to very low fares being made available.

However, OAG says the optimism in China is not reflected in neighbouring markets where the impact of Coronavirus appears to be accelerating.

South Korea has seen a 21 per cent reduction in capacity and Hong Kong a further 22 per cent.

Cathay Pacific Airways has been severely hit with traffic through Hong Kong down 70 per cent since the crisis hit.

Japan, however, is remaining resilient with ANA’s capacity only down by some 2.7 per cent since January and JAL by 5.3 per cent.

Airlines globally are expected to operate 40 million fewer seats in the first four months of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 as a result of the coronavirus, with Asian markets badly savaged.

A new analysis of scheduled airline capacity by airline data expert OAG shows domestic capacity in China is recovering with 2.9 million seats returning to the market, up by 49.6 percent since February 24.

The added capacity in the huge Chinese domestic market outweighed the capacity reduction in other markets but the recovery has not been shared by its neighbors.

The reduction of 40.1 million seats represents a fall in global capacity over the four months of about 2.2 percent but traffic on key Asian routes has reportedly collapsed.

Hong Kong has been particularly badly hit with a further 22 percent reduction in seat capacity since February 24 bringing the total fall since January 20 to 71 percent.

South Korea also saw a 21 percent reduction in the past week, Taipei was down by 17.2 percent while Japan, buoyed by its massive domestic market, saw a more modest 2.2 percent fall.

Cathay Pacific, Korean Air, Asiana and Eva Airways have seen seat capacity cuts of 20 percent in the past week, according to the analysis by OAG’s John Grant.

Singapore Airlines no longer appears in OAG’s weekly South-East Asian weekly top 10 list after cutting capacity a further 5 percent to bring total cuts since January 20 to 12.5 percent.

Low-cost carrier AirAsia cut seats by almost 9 percent since February 24, according to the analysis, while Malaysia Airlines was down 3.7 percent.

The exception has been Indonesia but that may change now coronavirus has been reported there.

“Airlines such as Lion Air, Citilink Indonesia and Batik Air have all added capacity in the last seven weeks; if that growth can hold with a wider outbreak of the virus is yet to be seen,’’ Grant said.

In Europe, according to Grant, the recent coronavirus outbreak in Northern Italy did not appear to have impacted total capacity at a country level.

But he noted airlines were still adjusting schedules and re-accomodating passengers from some canceled services before removing flights from their systems.

“Some airlines have sought to add capacity to existing routes across their networks, taking advantage of expected increases in demand over the approaching Easter holiday period,’’ he said.

The OAG seat analysis came as the International Air Transport Association called for the rules governing airport slots to be suspended.

About 43 percent of passengers depart from 200 slot co-ordinated airports worldwide and slot allocation rules mean airlines must use 80 percent of the allocated slots or lose them in the next equivalent season.

However, regulators can relax these requirements in extraordinary circumstances and IATA says that’s what airlines now face.

It pointed to one carrier experiencing a 26 percent reduction in year-on-year capacity across their entire operation, carriers in some markets reporting 50 percent “no shows” and softening future bookings.

“IATA research has shown that traffic has collapsed on key Asian routes and that this is rippling throughout the air transport network globally, even between countries without major outbreaks of COVID-19,” IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said.

“There are precedents for previous suspension of the slot use rules and we believe the circumstances again calls for a suspension to be granted.

“We are calling for regulators worldwide to help the industry plan for today’s emergency, and the future recovery of the network, by suspending the slot use rules on a temporary basis.“

Global coronavirus cases have now topped 90,000 with more than 3,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The number of cases is growing more quickly outside China, the source of the infection, and the World Health Organisation has warned the world is in “uncharted territory”.

WHO boss Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said outbreaks in South Korea, Italy, Iran and japan were of the greatest concern.

“We are in uncharted territory — we have never seen before a respiratory pathogen that is capable of community transmission, but at the same time which can also be contained with the right measures,” he told a news briefing in Geneva.

Iran has mobilized 300,000 teams to conduct nationwide door-to-door coronavirus checks as the death toll rose to 66 Monday and number of confirmed cases jumped to more than 1500.

South Korea reported almost 600 additional infections on Monday to bring the total to more than 4300.

In the US, the death toll in Washington State reached six as the number of cases across the country grew to about 75.

In Australia, the number of cases grew to 33 and a government minister has warned people not to shake hands or kiss as the country experienced its first death and person-to-person transmissions.

Authorities are seeking people who flew into Sydney on a Qatar Airways aircraft on February 23 with a woman from Iran who developed symptoms the next day and tested positive to the coronavirus.

The US has issued a “do not travel” warning to parts of Italy and South Korea and joined countries such as Australia in restricting travel to Iran because of the coronavirus.

The upgraded warnings were issued Saturday after the first death was recorded in the United States and researchers warned the virus may have been spreading in Washington state for weeks.

The Iranian restrictions mean US citizens or permanent residents must return to the US through an approved airport.

Foreign nationals who have traveled to Iran in the previous 14 days are banned from entering the country.

President Donald Trump also announced travelers would be screened prior to boarding on flights to the US from high-risk countries.

The restrictions came as American Airlines announced it was suspending operations to and from Milan, Italy, from New York and Miami until April 25 due to a reduction in demand.

Air New Zealand announced it was reducing flights to Samoa to comply with requests from the Samoan Health Ministry, which now requires all passengers to carry a medical certificate indicating they are well and able to travel.

In Europe, the Lufthansa Group said it was reducing short-haul operations by 25 percent in the coming weeks due to the accelerated spread of the coronavirus and its economic consequences.

The group is also continuing to reduce long-haul services and the number of long-haul aircraft currently not in operation has risen from 13 to 23.

The total confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide continued to rise to 86, 986 as of March 1, according to live updates by Johns Hopkins University, with 2979 dead.

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This includes 17 deaths and 3,526 cases in South Korea and 1,258 cases and 29 deaths in Italy.

However, almost half of those infected worldwide have recovered, including more than 31,500 people in China’s Hubei province where the disease began.

A 78-year-old Perth man who spent time on the Diamond Princess cruise ship became the first Australian to die of the disease. Australia has 27 cases of the disease, which has been likened to the 1917 Spanish Flu.

Government officials around the world have been calling on people not to panic and the World Health Organization, which upgraded its warning on the coronavirus, has yet to label it a pandemic.

The disease has a lower fatality rate than the 2003 SARS epidemic but has spread further and kills more people than normal flu.

It has caused financial markets to plummet and is having a significant effect on airlines and the travel industry due to lower demand.

Airlines have been upgrading their disinfection procedures and monitoring of passengers in response to the disease and have cut back or suspended flights to countries such as South Korea and China.

Some airlines are no longer offering hot towels, pillows and blankets and have changed the way they prepare and deliver meals.

And the angst among travelers appears to be increasing: a Canadian family was reportedly kicked off an Air Transat flight in Canada because their coughing child caused alarm amongst passengers.

This was despite the fact two doctors gave the 21-month-old approval to travel.