Boeing has slashed its flagship 777X backlog by almost 40 percent to just 191 jets in a 10-K filing.
The company’s website lists 309 firm sales but the latest delay to the jet’s debut now set for late 2023 has given some airlines the options of exiting the program and over 100 orders are at risk.
Last week when Boeing announced its US$11.94b record loss and massive US$6.5B charge for the 777X it warned that cancellations, production cuts, and flight-testing risks could cause additional losses.
The latest delay makes the program three years late.
The COVID pandemic wiped out demand for larger twin-aisle aircraft with demand not expected to return till late 2023 or 2024.
According to Seeking Alpha the filing says: “Delays for the 777X have resulted in and may continue to result in, customers having the right to terminate orders and or substitute orders for other Boeing aircraft.”
However, Seeking Alpha says a new Morgan Stanley report says Boeing is ready for lift-off after its Q4 write-off described as a “kitchen sink” event that de-risks earnings estimates and provides “a clear runway for Boeing for further upside.”
The Boeing 777X once described by Emirates President Tim Clark as a peach has a rosy future.
It has been ordered by blue-chip airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways, Lufthansa, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific Airways, British Airways, and All Nippon Airlines.
It was launched at the 2013 Dubai Air Show, with 259 orders and commitments for US$95 billion. The launch was the largest commercial aircraft launch by dollar value and Emirates led the way with orders for 150, with Qatar Airways for 50, and Etihad Airways for 25. Earlier Lufthansa committed to 34 aircraft.
Total orders are now put at 309 after Emirates decreased its order by 35 replacing them with 787s but the Boeing filing indicates a loss of a further 100 aircraft orders.
It is rumored that Emirates will swap more 777Xs for 787s.
The current backlog is listed as ANA 20, British Airways 18, Cathay 21, Emirates 115, Etihad 25, Lufthansa 20, Qatar Airways 60, Singapore Airlines 20, and Unidentified 10.
The only possible conclusion from an oceanographic and recovered debris perspective is that MH370 lies in the southern Indian Ocean.
That is the verdict from the highly respected Oceanographer Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi who is based at the University of Western Australia.
Prof. Pattiaratchi, who has been published in over 300 scientific journals tells Airlineratings.com that the “only tangible physical evidence that is available to date is the debris from the western Indian Ocean.”
“My definition of physical evidence is that something you could hold and touch.”
Prof. Pattiaratchi says that many pieces that have been discovered to date “have been proven by official sources from different countries to have originated from 9M-MRO (MH370’s registration).”
He also pours cold water on suggestions that the debris has been planted.
“There is a perception that this debris was planted. There is no evidence for this. The locations where the debris would make landfall was predicted by sophisticated oceanographic models. These models simulated the surface currents and pathways of debris every hour for more than 18 months.”
Prof. Pattiaratchi predicted where the debris would be found a year before the first piece was detected.
“All of the oceanographic modeling studies associated with the simulation of debris come to the same conclusion. These include many diverse groups from different countries including Australia, USA, Germany, and Italy.”
He adds that individuals who found the debris were directed to locations based on the computer model output where there was a high probability of debris washing ashore.
A total of 33 pieces have been found by 16 unrelated people in six counties with most being identified as being from MH370 or a Boeing 777.
“The only consistent conclusion based on the physical evidence from above is that the MH370 (9M-MRO) ended its flight in the southern Indian Ocean,” Prof Pattiaratchi said.
He adds that previous aircraft accidents have shown that a crash at sea will create a debris field of many thousands of pieces.
“The debris pieces found in the eastern Indian Ocean are only a very small percentage of the complete debris field. This was after more than 16 months and 4000 km away.”
“The only physical evidence, the debris in the western Indian Ocean, does not support recent suggestions that the 9M-MRO ended up close to the Maldives or in the South China Sea (SCS).
“Both SCS and Maldives have shorelines that are close to the purported location of the crash – but not a single piece has been found,” Prof Pattiaratchi said.
“Debris simulations from the Maldives indicate that in March (2014) the north-east monsoon was in operation and that currents would be flowing to the west.”
Prof. Pattiaratchi said that if MH370 had crashed there some of the debris would have reached Somalia before the currents changed with the monsoon.
He says the debris would be then transported back to the east-flowing past the Maldives (making landfall there) and also ending up along the coasts of southern India, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia.
“Not a single piece of debris has been recorded.”
On the South China Sea shootdown theory he comments that it is an enclosed basin with many countries along its boundaries: China, Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
“Any debris that may be been created could end up in any of these countries. Similar to the northern Indian Ocean the SCS also experience the monsoon and changing currents. Based on the proposed end of flight locations debris would end up along the coast of Vietnam and Malaysia due to the north-east monsoon. None have been found,” Prof Pattiaratchi said.
On the allegation that debris in the South China Sea has been collected up, Prof Pattiaratchi said that “for anyone who has experience in looking for objects at sea this is not possible.”
“The debris would be spread over a very large area. And it is not possible to collect all. We are talking about pieces that are relatively small, often floating just below the surface. For example, we deploy satellite-tracked buoys – even having a position to within 20 m – we often cannot find the object.”
“Based on the debris finds the only explanation is that the crash was in the southern Indian Ocean.”
Recent crash analysis suggests that MH370 lies just outside the original search area about 2000km west of Perth, Western Australia.
And drift modeling from the debris locations also points to the area where satellite experts say MH370 lies.
Below is one of the latest maps from the Independent Group which shows what they believe to be the final resting place of MH370. This area is highlighted in green and the area searched is bounded by the yellow line.
Prof Pattiaratchi suggests that MH370’s location could be a little further north close to an undersea formation called Broken Ridge.
9M-MRO at Perth Airport in 2012. Credit: Alan Pepper
The man who has found over half of all the known debris from MH370 is concerned that conspiracy theories still abound over the tragic loss that claimed 239 lives almost seven years ago.
Speaking exclusively with AirlineRatings.com ahead of the imminent release on yet another conspiracy theory book, “The Disappearing Act: The Impossible Case of MH370” by journalist Florence de Changy, Mr. Gibson says that her claim the Boeing 777 was shot down off southern Vietnam by a fighter aircraft or by a laser beam “is not supported by a shred of debris evidence.”
Incredibly, Ms. Changy’s book is the 130th written about the disappearance of MH370.
In an interview with Express.co.uk in London, Ms. de Changy says; “It’s an insult to pretend a Boeing-777 could vanish without a trace. It is not credible.”
Yet hundreds of aircraft have disappeared without a trace over the past 100 years but for MH370 a total of 33 pieces of debris have been recovered by 16 different people unrelated to each other in six different countries.
According to Mr. Gibson, at least half of the pieces of debris have been firmly identified as coming from MH370 or a 777.
Blaine Gibson with some positively identified MH370 debris.
Critically the two largest pieces – the flaperon and flap – were positively identified as from MH370.
Mr. Gibson said when MH370 first disappeared he went to Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar to look for debris and it was not till after the flaperon was found on Reunion Island in July 2015 that he turned his attention to the southern Indian ocean.
“I started objectively and ignored all the satellite data as I didn’t really understand it at the time but once the flaperon was found I focused on the southern Indian Ocean.”
“Initially on Mauritius, I found nothing as I was about six months too early but then the debris started washing up,” Mr. Gibson said.
“Not one piece of debris has turned up in the South China Sea – not one,” Mr. Gibson said.
“There is no evidence for this theory and in fact, all the physical and scientific evidence points to the contrary.”
Three factors that will play out this year will be pivotal in giving Boeing the confidence to launch its next airliner – the 220-270 seat Boeing 797.
As this article is written it is inconceivable to consider Boeing, with record losses for 2020, would be in a position to launch the 797 within 12 months but 100 years ago the two-year Spanish flu that killed about 50 million was followed by the Roaring Twenties – a time of great prosperity.
There is pent-up travel demand and savings that will fuel a travel boom through the rest of this decade.
The first of the factors for launch relates to COVID-19 vaccination.
Within 12 months it is expected that the majority of the world’s population will be vaccinated for COVID-19 and while there will be pockets where this is not the case those countries not fully vaccinated will be isolated.
With widespread vaccination and almost instant COVID19 testing available at airports before and after arrival, quarantining will be a thing of the past and travel will quickly resume through 2022.
The next factor will be Boeing’s successful resumption of service of the 737 MAX, which has met no passenger resistance despite being grounded for almost two years.
Clearly, the enormous amount of work done by Boeing and the global industry to eliminate the slightest chance of a repeat of the issues that led to the two tragic crashes has had a positive result on the traveling public.
And Boeing and the industry went further to eliminate scenarios that have never occurred before.
The backlog of deliveries will bring in much-needed cash and give the stock market comfort in Boeing for the long term. Boeing has over 400 undelivered 737 MAX aircraft and is slowly ramping production up again. The company has orders for around 3300 MAX aircraft once forecast cancellations are taken into consideration.
New York analyst Bernstein forecasts that revenue from commercial aircraft will more than double this year from US$16b to US$40b pushing Boeing to a modest $2b profit vs a US$11.6b loss for 2020. By 2025 Bernstein forecasts commercial aircraft revenues of US$55b and total revenue of US$107b with a profit of US$9b. It also predicts Boeing will be cash flow positive in 2022.
The third factor, which is more difficult, is the financial strength of airlines which will in part have to finance the building of the 797 with their initial deposits.
The weakness of the airlines may promote new funding models with greater risk-sharing by Boeing’s potential partners such as the Japanese industry and their backers.
China, with hopefully a new trade deal with the US sealed in 2021, may also become a much more significant partner.
Other players could be Middle East countries such as Qatar and the UAE.
Critical to the go-ahead is the shape and size of the 797.
Prior to COVID-19 airlines were lyrical about a twin-aisle 797 seating between 220 and 270 passengers that was optimized for medium-haul ranges of up to 11 hours flying.
Sure, the seat-mile costs are higher than a single aisle but the appeal of the twin-aisles in a 2-3-2 economy configuration is huge.
Also, the boarding times for a single-aisle 270-seater are simply far too long, particularly with passenger’s insistence on the amount of carry-on luggage they bring on baord.
Post COVID-19, while the focus for embattled airlines is fewer passengers that is very short-term thinking and should be discarded by Boeing.
Aircraft programs are 30 plus year ventures and anyway, it will be 2026 before the 797 would enter service.
And critical for passengers – in a post-COVID-19 world – is health and that will last for years to come.
Any airline offering a 2-3-2 configuration in economy will win hands down over a 3-3 layout, particularly on an 8-10 hour journey for which the 797 will be designed.
What is more the 2-3-2 layouts give almost 50 percent more overhead storage room.
The appeal of the twin-aisle 797 could be extraordinary which is why Qantas CEO Alan Joyce prior to COVID said Boeing would be “crazy not to do it.”
He added: “We think it’s a fantastic aircraft on paper that looks good for what we want.”
Etihad Airways has reaffirmed its commitment to the Australian market and its mission to reconnect families and Australian citizens stranded abroad.
The airline said that following the latest UK government directives, all passenger flights operating through the UAE to the UK have been suspended until further notice.
Despite these restrictions, Etihad says it will continue to operate for passengers permitted to depart the UK for travel to Sydney and Melbourne.
Emirates have cancelled all its UK flights, while Qatar Airways is unaffected.
As a result, Etihad advises all flights departing the UK remain unaffected and will operate as scheduled, keeping a vital link between Europe and Australia open for urgent travel.
Sarah Built, Etihad Airways Vice President Australia and South Asia, said: “As an international airline committed to serving Australia’s travel needs, helping to keep families connected and repatriate Australians stranded abroad has been a priority since the start of this crisis.
“Operating on the front lines, we are working to assist passengers on a daily basis who have been left unable to return home or reunite with their families. Despite the challenges we face, we remain firmly committed to the Australian market and want to assure our guests we will continue to fly to Australia, supporting them to return home as best we can. While we do everything we can to accommodate our guests, we do comply with the Australian Government mandate to significantly limit passenger arrivals per flight allowed to disembark at Sydney and Melbourne airports.”
To be able to fly passengers out of the UK, Etihad says it flies vital cargo to London and Manchester, positioning the aircraft to pick up passengers who wish to depart and allow them to return to Australia, within Australian government mandated passenger caps.
As per UK government advice, British and Irish nationals and third-country nationals with residence rights in the UK can only travel internationally when they have a legally permitted reason to leave home. If travellers are visiting the UK, they may return home.
Etihad says it is working closely with guests who have been impacted by the restrictions on flights to the UK to notify them of the changes to their itineraries and rearrange travel plans.
More information is available on etihad.com/destinationguide, through the mobile app, or by calling the Etihad Airways Contact Centre on +971 600 555 666 (UAE), +61 1300 532 215 (AU) and +44 (0)345 6081225 (UK). A list of other local Etihad contact centres is available at etihad.com/contacts.
Guests who have purchased their tickets through a travel agent are advised to contact the agency from which they purchased their ticket for assistance.
For the latest information about travelling to and from the UK please visit gov.uk/coronavirus.
Pakistan’s Federal Investigation Agency has arrested six people for their alleged involvement in the fake pilot licence scandal that emerged after a Pakistan International Airlines A320 crashed last year according to Reuters.
“Five Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) officials and a pilot have been arrested,” the Federal Investigation Agency said in a statement to Reuters.
At least 40 pilots and eight officials from the CAA’s licence branch have been named in three cases registered by the agency’s corporate crime wing Reuters reports.
“We have found a money trail in the investigation, each pilot paid a minimum of $312.50 for each paper they were supposed to appear in,” Abdul Rauf Shaikh, a senior FIA official, told Reuters.
The Boeing 797 – an aircraft that airline passengers will love – is back on the drawing board despite Boeing’s record 2020 loss.
Speaking with a select group of analysts this week Boeing’s president and chief executive officer David Calhoun said that the aerospace giant is progressing well on engineering and manufacturing forward technology development according to one who spoke with Airlineratings.com.
Mr Calhoun also added that it is ready when that moment comes “to offer a really differentiated product.”
And that product is expected to be what is called a middle-of-the-market twin-aisle 220-270 seat aircraft with a range of about 10 to 11 hours.
The configuration would likely be 2-3-2 in economy, 1-2-2 in premium economy, and 1-1-1 in business class.
The 797 will be made of composite material like the 787 and have all-new engines, but will be designed just for medium-haul routes and thus not be as heavy.
The secret to the economics of the 797, which would sit between the single-aisle 737 and the much larger 787, is new technology.
Late last year Mr. Calhoun told media that Boeing has “some incredible underlying technologies that are going to support the point-design for that next airplane,” and it would assess the market toward the end of this year.
Boeing had put the design effort on ice and the beginning of COVID but has since reactivated work.
The reality is that competitive pressure from Airbus is forcing Boeing to move forward.
Boeing’s largest 737 the MAX 10, cannot match the Airbus A321neoXLR which can seat up to 240 in an all-economy layout and fly up to 9,000km, whereas the MAX 10 has a range of 6,100km with 230 passengers.
That range shortfall is critical in the COVID-19 world with non-stop capability essential to bypass virus hotspots.
Boeing’s next largest offering is the 787 which can seat between 381 and 400 but carries all the structural weight -and thus cost – for long-range operations such as Perth to London nonstop.
The question for Boeing – and the market – is, does it go for the more luxurious twin-aisle design or a conventional single-aisle model.
The twin-aisle concept is what was exciting airlines before COVID-19 with Qantas’s CEO Alan Joyce saying Boeing would be “crazy not to do it.”
“We think it’s a fantastic aircraft on paper that looks good for what we want. And I think they’re hearing that quite a bit,” Mr. Joyce told Airlineratings.com last year.
Challenge is, while the COVID-19 world is all about lower passenger numbers for the shorter-term, designing and building a new design is a 30-year project.
The 797 concept is not new and has been around since the 1980s when McDonnell Douglas, now merged into Boeing, touted the Advanced Twin-aisle Medium Range (ATMR) aircraft (three photos below).
While Atlanta-based Delta Air Lines wanted the ATMR, later named the DC-11, McDonnell Douglas management balked at the risk despite an order for 60 and shelved the design.
Boeing also showed the same concept at the 1991 Paris Air Show but couldn’t make the business casework.
Boeing 7J7 mockup at the 1991 Paris Air Show
Fast forward to 2021 and a raft of technology and engine improvements make a twin-aisle design viable and desirable.
COVID-19 has made passengers extremely health conscious and being cramped in an aircraft, never popular – is now a major detriment to travel.
A twin-aisle aircraft would give passengers much greater space not to mention at least 50 percent more overhead baggage storage.
With airlines struggling to stay in the air launching a new design will require some innovative financing and Boeing would need to work closely with its historic partners in Japan and Italy.
China could also play a much greater sub-contracting role with a possible production line in that country.
Analysts suggest Boeing could launch in 12-months with entry into service in 2026/27.
Qatar Airways has evolved over the past year as the world’s airline, keeping services going when many have shut up shop.
The Doha-based airline has carried over 3.1 million passengers and 180,000 Australians home during the pandemic.
The extend of the commitment of Qatar Airways can be gauged by the fact that according to Australian Government data from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport, and Regional Economics during the peak of repatriation efforts, it carried almost ten times more passengers in and out of Australia than its nearest competitors.
Qatar Airways now operates 24 weekly passenger flights and nine weekly freighter flights to Australia, supporting both repatriation and Australian exporters.
The airline even launched a new Australian destination, Brisbane, during the pandemic – bringing its services to five major cities in Australia, including Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, and Perth.
Not appreciated is the massive contribution of Qatar Airways to supporting Australian exporters and maintaining vital supply chains for businesses with the airline carrying just over 15,000 tonnes of Australian goods since March 1, 2020.
The continued operation of these flights is vital to the Australian economy as they maintain a much-needed link to the world and facilitate international exports.
Qatar Airways is in regular communication with the Australian Government since the onset of the pandemic to provide, repatriation charters operated to/from Australia, and extra capacity to help bring Australians home.
The airline remains committed to supporting the repatriation of Australian residents whilst also complying with the passenger cap restrictions announced by the Australian Government.
See Tom Meadmore’s flight on Qatar Airways below.
Front and centre of the Qatar Airways commitment is the Airbus A350 – the ultimate Airbus aircraft.
It is quite simply the best commercial aircraft flying today crammed with technology for the pilots and comfort plus for the passengers.
Qatar Airways has the world’s largest fleet with 53, which has enabled it to fly through the pandemic carrying home to loved ones millions of stranded passengers.
Born as Airbus’s competitor to the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, the A350 has also become a dream machine with Qatar Airways being a major influence on the design
The A350 fits perfectly between the slightly smaller 787 and the larger 777-300ER and she is the ultimate Airbus aircraft that incorporates all the lessons of the last 50 years since Airbus was formed.
The extra width of the cabin and very large windows results in an outstanding cabin that has the widest seats for passengers in all cabins.
The A350 also has the quietest cabin of any twin-aisle aircraft that includes a draft-free air circulation system resulting in a low ambient cabin noise level for a more peaceful and healthier journey.
The A350 comes in two models the -900 and -1000 and Qatar Airways has them both. Many of the A350-900s have 36 of the new award-winning Qsuites and 247 economy seats and in the larger -1000 model, all have 46 Qsuites and 281 economy seats.
Qatar Airways offers passengers the maximum flexibility when making a booking and full details can be found here.
The airline also has the highest COVID-19 safety rating with rating agencies Skytrax and Airlineratings.com.
Grazia Vittadini has always loved aircraft and loved to build balsa models as a child growing up in Milan but now it is eco aircraft with aerospace giant Airbus.
When she grew up in Italy and the US, she aspired to become a fighter pilot with the Italian Air Force.
“They wouldn’t take females then, but I applied anyway”, she says laughingly in an interview with Airlineratings.com
Vittadini studied Aeronautical Engineering and specialized in Aerodynamics in Milan, then took a job with the Italian side of the Eurofighter consortium. In 2002 she joined Airbus in Germany and quickly rose on the corporate ladder.
She seemed to be a perfect role model for the aviation industry, painfully aware it still urgently needs to hire many more females and put them in leading roles. Vittadini is passionate, multi-lingual in all the Airbus languages, has a clear vision, and excels as a team player, but is also not shy to put on a good show on stage when presenting projects close to her heart.
Vittadini with Airlineratings.com European Editor Andreas Spaeth.
“I was doing ballet dancing as a hobby before, so that’s where I got some stage experience,” she reveals, chuckling. But at Airbus, her career path led Vittadini to much less light-hearted topics.
In 2005 she became Chief Engineer for the A380’s wing high lift devices in Bremen, later Head of Major Structural Tests in Hamburg, working on everything from the A320, A400M, A350, and A380.
In her spare time, she finally became at least a private pilot and got her PPL in the Airbus flying club. “But sadly, since three years my license is dormant,” admits Vittadini, who hasn’t got enough free time on her hands to enjoy piloting a single-engine aircraft any longer.
In 2017, Vittadini served as EVP Head of Engineering and from May 2018 as Chief Technology Officer (CTO) and member of the Airbus Executive Committee. While this is truly an impressive career for anyone, only when Guillaume Faury took over as Airbus CEO in 2019, she started to appear more publicly.
Last year, during the height of the pandemic, Airbus stole the industry limelight while global aviation was in survival mode by presenting the ZeroE concept for different hydrogen-powered aircraft. The study calls for a sustainable aircraft flying emission-free by 2035.
Airbus proposes three basic concepts, one an ATR-style turboprop, then a twin-engine A320-type airliner plus a blended wing body design. One reason to go public with these plans at the time, more concrete than any presented by a major manufacturer before, was the fact that the French government set up huge post-pandemic economic stimulus packages containing large sums earmarked for developing sustainable aircraft. Airbus had already started work on these concepts in 2018.
“We have lost 40 percent of our business, but we are certain there is light at the end of the tunnel,” says Vittadini. “We will be burdened by this crisis for a long time, at least five years. Our main question is: How do we get out of this and how do we work on the sustainability of our products and CO2 reduction?”
“Until 2025 we want to select both a concept and a technology for that, ZeroE stands for what you can do when you think freely and say good-bye to traditional propulsion concepts,” says the CTO.
With three times the energy density, but also four times the volume of kerosene, hydrogen made from green electricity is seen as the most promising option to reach aviation’s climate requirements.
But thus far, there is a lack of both hydrogen production and infrastructure for its use on the ground. Airbus has therefore recently added an important innovation to the ZeroE turboprop concept airliner presented earlier.
This could be a major step in propulsion for a regional turboprop airliner of 50 or even 70 seats. Up to six stand-alone pods could be attached to the wings, each an individual unit with everything needed for propulsion included: An eight-blade propeller plus a tank and a cooling system for liquid hydrogen, a cryogenic fuel needing storage at minus 253°C. Hydrogen and air are supplied to the fuel cells to generate electric current. Power electronics convert the current to power the electric motors. Thanks to this energy, the motor shaft rotates, thereby turning the propeller.
One major feature is that these pods are easily interchangeable, during a ground stop units with used-up hydrogen tanks can be swiftly removed from the wing and a full replacement plugged in place instead. A major simplification of maintenance and logistics.
On-board, it would mean no complicated system of hydrogen lines is needed and cabin space could be fully occupied by passengers as in today’s aircraft. The other ZeroE concepts call for up to one-third of the cabin floor reserved for the voluminous hydrogen tanks. Airbus stresses this won’t be the last new option added to the ZeroE base concept. “With Covid, we have reached a point where change is inevitable for aviation, it can’t go on as before,” says Grazia Vittadini. And she clearly sees the potential this constellation might present for her quest to make flying sustainable, finally.
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