More than 40,000 aircraft worth over $US6 trillion will be needed over the next 20 years according to Boeing, the industry’s largest aerospace company.
Boeing has lifted its long-term forecast as rising passenger traffic and upcoming aircraft retirements drive the need for 42,730 new jets – valued at $US6.3 trillion.
The company also noted that the global aircraft fleet will also sustain growing demand for commercial aviation services, leading to a total market opportunity of $US15 trillion.
Boeing’s annual forecast, renamed the Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) to include a detailed analysis of the dynamic aviation services market, was presented at the Farnborough International Airshow.
Randy Tinseth, vice president of Commercial Marketing for The Boeing Company told media that the company’s forecast – first presented in 1961 – is the industry’s most accurate and projects the total number of aircraft increasing 4.1 percent over the previous forecast.
“For the first time in years, we are seeing economies growing in every region of the world. This synchronized growth is providing more stimulus for global air travel. We are seeing strong traffic trends not only in the emerging markets of China and India, but also in the mature markets of Europe and North America,” said Mr Tinseth.
“Along with continued traffic expansion, the data show a big retirement wave approaching as older airplanes age out of the global fleet.”
Including aircraft that will be retained, the global fleet is projected to essentially double in size to 48,540 by 2037.
According to Boeing, the single-aisle segment will have the most growth, with a demand for 31,360 new aircraft. This US$3.5 trillion market is driven in large part by the continued growth of low-cost carriers, strong demand in emerging markets and increasing replacement demand in markets such as China and Southeast Asia said Mr. Tinseth.
The widebody segment (787, 777, 777X) calls for 8,070 new aircraft valued at nearly $US2.5 trillion over the next twenty years.
Additionally, Boeing projects the need for 980 new production widebody freighters over the forecast period as well as 1,670 converted freighters.
In terms of the geographic split, the Asia Pacific region, which includes China, will continue to lead the way says Boeing, accounting for 40 percent of total aircraft deliveries.