United Airlines is now rumored to be considering an order for up to 300 aircraft that would include 737MAX, A321neo, and the 787.
According to Seeking Alpha, Airfinance Journal is reporting a mix that would be 50 to 60 Airbus A321neo aircraft with 250 Boeing 737 MAX and Boeing 787 aircraft.
While an exact split is not known, Seeking Alpha says in a client report that "the order could include 200 Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft to replace the Boeing 737-800 and Airbus A320ceo, 60 Airbus A321neo or Airbus A321XLR aircraft, and 40 Boeing 787s.
"Such a deal would be extremely large by quantity and value with special attention for the wide-body part of the order. To replace the aging Boeing 767-300ERs, up to 20 Boeing 787-8s could be ordered and 20 Boeing 787-10s to replace the older Boeing 777-200/200ER aircraft powered by Pratt & Whitney turbofans that suffered the accident earlier this year.
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"An even bolder move would be if all Boeing 777-200 and Boeing 777-200ERs with Pratt & Whitney turbofans would be replaced which would require around 50 Dreamliners, but it would require significant improvements on the Boeing 787-10 to meet the payload-range capabilities or acquiring the smaller Boeing 787-9s.
"Such a decision would effectively also close the door for the Airbus A350-900, which is positioned in between the Boeing 777-200ER and Boeing 787-9s. Given the capabilities of the aircraft types that is not a decision I would consider to be the most straightforward one," Seeking Alpha says.
"The combined list price value would be around $43.5B, but after customary discounts, the price would likely drop to around $19.2B. So, United Airlines could provide a significant boost to some of the industry's key programs."
Seeking Alpha's Dhierin Bechai said "at this moment, there are several rumored order numbers ranging from 100 to 300 jets. What is clear is that any of the rumored quantities provide a significant sign of confidence in the recovery of the industry when being turned into an order."
"There indeed seems to be a need to replace some of the aging wide-body aircraft, and also the Airbus A320 fleet is reaching an age where replacement should be considered. The Boeing 737-800 fleet is still a bit younger but in the coming decade, many of the aircraft would also reach the retirement age. Given the size of the possible order, I would not be surprised if only part of the order will actually materialize. Certain parts of an order could either be announced at a later stage or be options when announcing a firm order," Mr Bachai said.
Either way, any major order right now will attract a very large discount and be a very smart move by United Airlines.
Below is a table of the possible mix and values (Source: AeroAnalysis).
"The combined list price value would be around $43.5B, but after customary discounts, the price would likely drop to around $19.2B. So, United Airlines could provide a significant boost to some of the industry's key programs."
Seeking Alpha's Dhierin Bechai said "at this moment, there are several rumored order numbers ranging from 100 to 300 jets. What is clear is that any of the rumored quantities provide a significant sign of confidence in the recovery of the industry when being turned into an order."
"There indeed seems to be a need to replace some of the aging wide-body aircraft, and also the Airbus A320 fleet is reaching an age where replacement should be considered. The Boeing 737-800 fleet is still a bit younger but in the coming decade, many of the aircraft would also reach the retirement age. Given the size of the possible order, I would not be surprised if only part of the order will actually materialize. Certain parts of an order could either be announced at a later stage or be options when announcing a firm order," Mr Bachai said.
Either way, any major order right now will attract a very large discount and be a very smart move by United Airlines.Have questions or want to share your thoughts?
