Global airline traffic growth hits a 12-year high

Global disruption, cramped aircraft cabins and social media tirades failed to dull the lustre of cheap fares as passenger demand for the first six months of 2017 experienced its highest growth in 12 years.

The 7.9 per cent traffic growth for the first half was accompanied by a 1 percentage point increase in the passenger load factor to a packed record high of 81.9 per cent, indicating many planes were flying full.

How carriers shared in the windfall depended on where they were based, with regional figures bookended by the Asia-Pacific (up 11.6 per cent) and the Middle East (up 2.1 per cent).

The International Air Transport Association is predicting a full year of above-trend traffic growth as a result of the robust first half but warned increases in the second half may not be as strong.

“A brighter economic picture and lower airfares are keeping demand for travel strong,’’ said IATA  director general Alexandre de Juniac. “But as costs rise, this stimulus of lower fares is likely to fade. And uncertainties such as Brexit need to be watched carefully.”

A bumper northern summer translated into June demand that was  7.8 per cent higher than the previous June. The global figure for international airlines was up 7.5 per cent and domestic demand was  8.2 per cent higher.

Again there were wide regional differences.

International growth on Asia-Europe routes saw June passenger traffic for Asia-Pacific airlines jump 9.1 per cent compared to a year ago while European carriers were up 8.8 per cent due to economic momentum. The Europeans also recorded the highest load factor of 85.9 per cent.

Middle Eastern carriers continued to struggle with growth of just 2.5 per cent as the regional load factor slipped to 68.9 per cent. Carriers in the region have been reporting slumping profits with Abu Dhabi-based Etihad recently reporting a massive $US1.87 billion net loss.

“While most markets have seen demand slowing, it is most visible on the Middle East-North America market, which has been affected by a combination of factors including the (recently-lifted) ban on personal electronic devices, as well as a wider negative stimulation from the travel ban that has now been implemented for certain countries,’’ IATA said.

“However, passenger traffic between the Middle East and North America was already slowing in early 2017, in line with a moderation in the pace of growth of the largest carriers in the region.”

A comparatively robust economic backdrop and strong outbound passenger demand in North America saw a 4.4 per cent rise in June international traffic. But IATA said anecdotal evidence indicated inbound travel to the US was being deterred by additional security measures.

Latin American and African airlines topped the increases in with rises 9.7 per cent and 9.9 per cent, respectively.

However, the African load factor of 64.3 per cent in Africa was the lowest of any region.

The strong increase in domestic demand was again led by China and India. It varied between regions but all markets in IATA's basket of countries recorded a rise.