Over the past few years, analysts and airline officials in the US have been predicting a shortage of qualified pilots. With the looming threat, airlines considered how to meet the challenges at the same time government officials were changing the rules to require more flight hours for prospective pilots.
“I think everything that has happened has been predicted,” said Regional Airline Association President Roger Cohen. “It just happened faster. The cold reality of it is obviously worse than the prediction.”
In January, the industry came face to face with the first real manifestation of those prognostications when a small regional carrier, Great Lakes Airlines operating out of Wyoming announced it would suspend service to a half dozen small cities because it didn’t have enough pilots.
“Due to the unintended consequences of the new congressionally mandated pilot regulatory requirements, the Company feels it is in the best interest of our customers, communities and other employees to suspend service from these stations until we are able to rebuild our staff of pilots in order to provide reliable service,” said Great Lakes CEO Charles Howell in a statement.
The shortage is attributed in large part to a recent change in rules from the US Federal Aviation Administration requiring 1500 hours and an ATP license for prospective commercial pilots. In the past, many regional carriers hired candidates with fewer hours offering the new pilots the chance to build up their hours and experience with a shot at moving on to higher pay as a pilot with a legacy carrier. The new rules went into effect in August 2013.
US Aviation officials sought to tighten the standards and the training following a tragic crash of a Colgan Air Q400 in February 2009 that killed 49 people. The accident investigation found that the two pilots had not been adequately trained to respond to a stall and had violated sterile cockpit rule which limits conversation specifically to aircraft function. The incident sparked a flurry of self-examination on the part of airlines as well as government regulatory agencies.
Cohen said airline representatives had worked with the FAA to ease some of the restrictions, such as an option to substitute an accredited university program for a portion of the required hours.
The new 1500 hour requirement effectively “moved the goal posts” for students currently enrolled in a university program who planned to pursue a carrier in aviation upon graduation, said Cohen.
“We’ve lost thousands of prospective pilots and turned off thousands going forward,” said Cohen. “There are thousands of highly trained qualified professional pilots coming out of universities that aren’t even able to interview with an airline.”
In anticipation of the shortage, Cohen said regional airlines have taken aggressive steps to resolve the issue such as offering signing bonuses, raising starting salaries and establishing bridge programs with universities. But it hasn’t been enough.
The high cost of gaining flight hours and certification coupled with low starting salaries has not helped attract good candidates. Young people are not enamored enough with the idea of flying to sink deeply into debt in exchange for living a dream of flight.
United Airlines announced major cuts to its Cleveland hub in February, owing in part to its regional partners feeling the pinch of the new government regulations.
“These new regulations have caused mainline airlines to hire regional pilots, while simultaneously significantly reducing the pool of new pilots from which regional pilots can hire,” United officials wrote in a letter to employees announcing the cuts. “Although this is an industry issue, it directly affects us and requires us to reduce our regional partner flying, as several of our regional partners are beginning to have difficulty flying their schedule due to reduce new pilot availability.”
The carrier said the Cleveland hub had not been profitable generating “tens of millions of dollars in annual losses” in recent years. Some 460 jobs will be lost at the hub.
Republic Airways, a regional partner with United at its Cleveland hub, announced this week is would be grounding 27 ERJs this year because the company is having trouble hiring enough pilots.
In a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Republic stated it was taking the action because of a “significant reduction” in the number of qualified pilots who meet the 1500 hour rule. The reduction in flying will also affect Republic’s partner, American Airlines.
“The applicant flow problems continue to persist in the new year and it has become all too clear that we can no longer consider extending all our small jet contract,” Republic President and CEO Bryan Bedford stated in a letter to employees.
ALPA tries to debunk shortage
The handwringing over whether there is a pilot shortage was refuted in early February by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Assn. International) which called it a “myth.” ALPA represents nearly 50,000 pilots at 31 airlines in the US and Canada.
“There may be a shortage of qualified pilots who are willing to fly for US airlines because of the industry’s recent history of instability, poor pay and benefits,” said ALPA president Lee Moak in a statement. Moak said there are thousands of qualified pilots on furlough or working overseas who would gladly return to US cockpits if conditions were favorable.
He cited the recent closure or US regional carrier Comair, which furloughed 800 experienced pilots who are now looking for jobs in addition to 1,154 ALPA members currently on furlough.
In the US average starting salary for regional airline is $21,285 plus benefit. Starting co-pilots at Delta and United earn $61,000 plus benefits, according to ALPA.
“The real solution to preventing any future pilot shortage is for airlines to produce consistently profitable results,” Moak Observed. “Congress can support this goal by implementing pro-growth aviation policies that reduce the tax burden on airlines and give industry an opportunity to compete and prevail in the international marketplace.”
Republic’s Bedford agreed in part but pointed out that some 18,000 US pilots will be reaching the mandatory retirement age of 65 over the next decade.
“There are ample pilots for today’s needs, but these young people, who have graduated with aeronautical aviation degrees no longer qualify for employment,” Bedford told employees. “And there are not enough ways for them to get the hourly time the new law requires.”
Cohen and airline officials expect there will continue to be pilot shortages and discontinuation of service to smaller communities.
“We don’t need another report on what the issues are,” said Cohen, who recently announced the formation of task force of regional airline CEOs to come up with ways to maintain service. “We are focused on trying to find some short term solutions. Each day sees another headline about reduced service and those are going to continue.”
