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Should the search continue?

History shows that we never give up trying to find ships or planes that disappear – particularly those that are high profile.

Titanic, the battleship Bismarck, battlecruiser HMS Hood and cruiser HMAS Sydney are classic examples and there are many more.

Recently Microsoft co-founder Paul G Allen funded an eight year search which found the Musashi, one of the two largest and most technologically advanced battleships in naval history – 71 years after it was destroyed by American aircraft at the Battle of Lyete Gulf. 

Searchers also continue – off an on – to look for Amelia Earhart who vanished in July 1937 while attempting the circumnavigation of the world.

The disappearance of MH370 two years ago today with 239 passengers and crew aboard is unprecedented in modern history.

Certainly aircraft have disappeared without a trace but not a modern commercial airliner with hundreds aboard.

Today we have the technology to find MH370 but we need time and money as we certainly have the will.

The Australian led international team are confident that they will find MH370 in the coming months, some saying by July,  but if this is not the case the search must be widened.

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So far, only one piece of confirmed wreckage – a flaperon – has been recovered, while 86,000 sq kms of  a 120,000 sq km area of ocean floor (identified as the most likely location) has been scoured without any sign of the main body of wreckage.

The unprecedented nature of the disappearance and the lack of debris has led to countless theories, speculation and inaccurate, even irresponsible reporting.

This has led search leaders, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) to refute some media coverage and most recently it said that some contained “significant inaccuracies and misunderstandings.”

The search is the most complex and scientific ever undertaken – and it’s multinational.

The ATSB coordinates the Search Strategy Working Group and its collective work has led to the definition of the current search area.

This multinational team has extensive expertise in satellite communications, aircraft systems, data modelling and accident investigation.

It includes specialists from; the UK’s Air Accidents Investigation Branch; Boeing; Australia’s Defence Science and Technology Organisation; Malaysia’s Department of Civil Aviation; Inmarsat; the US National Transportation Safety Board and Thales in the UK.

The governments directly responsible for MH370 are Malaysia and China as the flight was a code-share with China Southern Airlines.

These two countries, along with Australia – as the aircraft crashed in airspace under our control – must widen the search if the current effort turns up nothing.

Relatives need closure and the airline industry must know what happened to MH370 to ensure it can never happen again.

A third piece of MH370 debris?

Another piece of suspected MH370 which carries the grey and blue Malaysia Airlines colours has been discovered on Reunion Island.

In a twist,  the piece which was handed over to police last Thursday, was found by the Johnny Begue, who discovered the Boeing 777 "flaperon" in July last year.

Mr Begue told AFP that he was out jogging on the shore when he found the object measuring about 40 by 20 centimetres which had a blue mark on the surface and was grey underneath.

The piece appears to be aeronautical in nature.

Mr Begue said that since the discovery of the Flaperon he has been combing the island's shores.

"When there's bad weather that is when you should look, when the sea tosses up a lot of stuff," he said.

It is understood that the piece will be sent to the French crash authority, the BEA, for forensic examination.

Relations between the French and Malaysian authorities are strained over information swapping relating to MH370 so it may be weeks before any confirmation is forthcoming.

In 2014 after the disappearance of MH370 the French set up a murder inquiry because several of its nationals were aboard.

However the Malaysians were not as co-operative as French investigators would have liked.

If this piece of debris and the one found in the Mozambique Channel (below) are confirmed as being from MH370 it would support the catastrophic impact theory rather than controlled flight onto the ocean surface.

MH370 Hope

MH370 medical reports

Investigators leading the massive international search effort for MH370 believe they are in the right area and the downed plane will be found in the coming months. 

Ahead of the two year anniversary of the disappearance of the plane and all 239 people on board, investigators have confirmed a recent refinement of the suspected flight path analysis shows them they are now looking in the area of highest probability. 

This has been backed up by reverse drift modelling from the University of WA.

Searchers correct the record

Only human input

Yesterday Australian Transport Safety Bureau chief commissioner Martin Dolan told Airline Ratings that he was “optimistic” that MH370 would be found before the agency covered the entire 120,000 sq km search area.

Mr Dolan said there were three more areas of particular interest yet to be searched.

He said that the four ships involved in the search had “completed about three quarters [85,000 sq km] of the search area” and he was happy with the “quality and quantity of the resources being deployed.”

It came after debris was discovered on Mozambique this week, presenting what could be another breakthrough in the ongoing search for answers.

UWA oceanographer Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi said that drift modelling showed that if the crash was further south than the current search location then the flaperon discovered last July “would not have got to Reunion Island in the timeframe.” 

“If the crash site was to the north then it would have got there too quickly – so they are looking in the right area.”

And the same analysis holds for the suspected piece discovered this week of Mozambique by American Blaine Gibson.

Mr Blaine, who has been mounting his own search, consulted Professor Pattiaratchi about where to look for debris.

“I told him that debris would start appearing in the Mozambique Channel from September last year,” said Professor Pattiaratchi.

The latest find will be brought to Australia for examination, with Transport Minister Darren Chester saying its location was consistent with drift modelling based on the plane crashing in the area being probed.

It follows the discovery of a flaperon which washed up on Reunion Island in September last year.

The refined area which is now being investigated was identified by Boeing 777 captain and mathematician Simon Hardy.

In a detailed analysis Captain Simon Hardy identified a location at the southern and western end of the search area where he believes MH370 crashed.

The search, which is the most expensive and complex underwater search in history, involves three search vessels towing side scan sonars and the fourth, the Havila Harmony, using an autonomous underwater vehicle. 

The AUV is surveying some of the most difficult portions of the search area, such as mountainous regions, that cannot be searched effectively. 

Some of the search area has been liken to the Swiss Alps in topography.

The search costs are expected to top $200 million with Australia footing well over half the cost.
 

More MH370 wreckage found?

A piece of wreckage apparently from a Boeing 777 – like missing MH370 – has been found washed up on a sandbar over the weekend off the coast of Mozambique, a U.S. official told CNN on Wednesday.

The newly discovered debris is on its way to Australia for further examination. 

Searches correct the record

The object has the words "NO STEP" on it and could be from the plane's horizontal stabilizer — the wing-like parts attached to the tail, sources say. It was discovered by an American who has been blogging about the search for MH370.

NBC says that photographic analysis of the object suggests it could have come from the doomed jet, which vanished almost exactly 2 years ago.

According to NBC it was found on a sandbank in the Mozambique Channel — the body of water between Mozambique in eastern Africa and Madagascar.

Investigators in Malaysia, Australia and the U.S. have seen photographs of the latest object and sources say there is a good chance it comes from a Boeing 777.

Malaysia Airlines called the identification "speculative."

"It is too speculative at this point for MAS to comment," the airline said.

The mystery of what happened to the plane remains unsolved. The search has turned up only one piece of confirmed debris last July but also some false leads.

The development comes days ahead of the second anniversary of the jet's disappearance en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014 with 239 people on board.

We will continue to update this story with information and images as it is released. 

Qatar Airways soars

One of the Big Three Arabian Gulf carriers, Qatar Airways, is making major changes to its network strategy as it begins expanding its reach in Australia.

As the first Qatar Airways 335-seat Boeing 777-300ER touches down in Sydney on the evening of March 2, the airline is changing the timing of its connections at its Doha airport headquarters to avoid conflict with the 11pm to 6am flight curfews at both Sydney and Adelaide, which it will begin serving in two months’ time.

     Survey: Does 10 rather than 9 a breast seating on the 777 influence who you fly with? 

That means moving the Sydney and Adelaide departures from Doha out of the main departures wave in the hours immediately following midnight, local time, and back to mid-evening. The daily Sydney service leaves at 8.10pm and the Adelaide Airbus A350-900 daily departs at 9pm from May 2.

Existing daily flights to Melbourne, currently leaving Qatar around 1am, will also join the new mid-evening departures wave in the next few weeks, the 8.40pm departure and the earlier arrival time allowing onward Australian connections for the first time.

The Melbourne service currently does not arrive until 10.25 pm. The new time, 6.10pm (5.10pm after the end of daylight saving next month), will enable connections with cities like Hobart and Canberra with Qatar’s oneworld partner Qantas.

At the other end of the network, Qatar Airways, has boosted frequencies from its European network of more than 20 online cities. The new Australian schedule enables one-stop connections from European capitals with mid-morning departures from Europe for Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide.

Only Qatar’s daily Boeing 777-300ER service to the Western Australian capital Perth will remain in its post-midnight departure slot from Doha.
As recently as 2012, Qatar Airways chief executive Akbar al Baker pledged he would never fly to Sydney while it had a curfew, which, he said, made scheduling impossible for a hub-and-spoke carrier like Qatar Airways.

"The curfew is a very big factor (of) not operating to Sydney and the operating cost out of Sydney is very high," Al Baker said at the time. "Melbourne is a more efficient use of airplanes because it is a 24-hour airport and Sydney is not.”

But the exclusion of Australia’s biggest city was hurting the airline’s global network and it pushed hard for extra rights in government-to-government negotiations in 2015.

After the deluge of new capacity already allocated to Gulf giant Emirates of Dubai and its neighbour Etihad of Abu Dhabi, Qatar Airways had been restricted to just two flights a day from Australia’s four main cities (Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth) and used that entitlement for the Melbourne and Perth services.

The new air services treaty, signed in September 2015, allows just one extra daily flight, which is being used to launch Sydney.

The fourth daily service to Adelaide is possible because it is outside the destination restrictions specified by the Australian government.

“We have been very happy with the development of both routes (Melbourne and Perth), but disappointed with the time it has taken to improve our traffic rights which allow us to operate more frequencies on both these routes and, of course, to other Australian cities,” Qatar Airways chief commercial officer Hugh Dunleavy told AirlineRatings.com. 

“We are very much in favour of competition and are eager to be able to compete on the Australian routes.

“(Destinations are) certainly a distinct aspect of our appeal, but I believe our goal is to appeal to the world’s consumers and airline travellers because I believe we have one of the world’s best products out there. 

"We believe it is important to differentiate ourselves and we believe in this level of investment not just in the physical aircraft, but the type of product on board and the quality of the service the staff provide – that attention to detail I think makes us second to none.”

 

It can pay to go premium when flying

A survey by  Airline Ratings looking at the Australian domestic market has found Virgin Australia and Qantas come out on top for value once you add in baggage, food, drink and typical in-flight entertainment.

The Australian and Asian markets are one of only a few remaining that offers travellers the option to fly on a true full service or low cost carrier. Most full service carriers in Europe and America have adopted a low cost model themselves for intercontinental or domestic flights to remain competitive. 

For the first two weeks of this month the cheapest base fare from Perth to Sydney is with Tigerair at $135 and the highest is Qantas at $345, but the averages are another story.

On many days the Qantas base fare is just $231 and though the average is $289, that included baggage, meal and drinks.

Virgin Australia ranged from $249 to $399, with an average fare of $292.

Jetstar was the surprise with base fares from $179 to $299, with an average of $249. However, each Friday the airline offers specials.

Tigerair’s fares are between $135 and $299 for the two weeks, with the average $214.

The survey found that once baggage, a meal and drinks were added, the premium carriers offered much better value and were often cheaper.

The survey for Tuesday, March 22 found the fares for Perth to Sydney including a bag, meal and drink were: Tigerair $251, Virgin $259, Qantas $260 and Jetstar $299.

But Qantas Group chief executive Alan Joyce said 70 per cent of Jetstar passengers travelled on $150 fares or less.

He also said that Qantas Group fares were on average 20 to 25 per cent less than five years ago.

The premium airlines came out in front for entertainment, particularly if travelling on an A330 twin-aisle aircraft.

These 295-seat planes are the flagships of the Qantas and Virgin Australia fleets and thus typically showcase the latest innovations.

Both offer either fixed seat-back videos or streaming to an iPad.

If flying later this year, the average results are interesting.

The survey found the lowest base fares for the first two weeks of November for Perth to Sydney were Tigerair at $179 then Virgin Australia at $199, Qantas at $209 and Jetstar a surprising $255.

Adding baggage, food and drinks makes Virgin Australia and Qantas clear winners in cost alone, not to mention value.

The AN225 is the king of the skies

Andriy Blagovisniy is passionate.

Passionate about his native Ukraine and his company’s giant flagship which is coming to Perth.

And he has good reason.

The Antonov AN225 “Mriya” – the world’s biggest aircraft – was designed and built in Ukraine and is now operated by Kiev-based Antonov Airlines.

Mr Blagovisniy was in Perth this week to discuss the interaction and coordination of the AN225’s first visit to Australia with both the customer and Perth Airport.

The head of commercial for Antonov Airlines beams as he discusses the AN225 Mriya.

“My office overlooks it when it is at our home base, and every time I gaze at it I feel pride in the Antonov company and the might of human mind that made the dream a reality,” said Mr Blagovisniy.

And at the time the thousands of human minds at Antonov were led by General Manager Petr Balabuyev.

“The AN225’s name Mriya is Ukrainian for Dream,” said Mr Blagovisniy.

An aeronautical engineer with a degree in international relations Mr Blagovisniy’s role is to sell the virtues of the AN225 and its smaller brother the AN124.

“It is really unique and can carry cargo no other aircraft can uplift.”

The AN225 performs about two missions a month to all corners of the globe.

Whether its giant turbine blades from China to Denmark, electrical generators from Germany to Armenia or disaster relief from Europe to Japan, the AN255 turns thousands of heads wherever it goes.

“When we flew it to Zagreb, we were informed about 30000 visited the airport during a whole day to see its loading and at Minneapolis – the TV stations covered the arrival live.”

Mr Blagovisniy confirmed more details of the AN225’s visit to Perth which is scheduled now for May.

On route from Europe it will make several stops for refuelling and crew rest on route.

The exact arrival date will not be known till firm confirmation of the readiness of the cargo and it is expected the AN225 will be in Perth for two days before returning to the Ukraine.

Mr Blagovisniy said that usually it takes about 8-10 hours to unload this type of cargo for the resource industry which weighs a massive 135 tonnes.

The weighty cargo is secured on a special frame that spreads the load across the majority of the floor area of the AN225.

Mr Blagovisniy said that the AN225 while built in the late 80s is certified to keep flying through to 2033 as minimum.

In 2013 the Ukrainian Civil Aviation authorities cleared the AN225 for 4000 landings and 20,000 hours of flight and 45 years of operation.
 

Tara Air crashes in Nepalese mountains killing all on board.

A Twin Otter carrying 23 people (18 passengers, 2 infants and 3 crew) went missing Wednesday February 24th 2016 while flying in a mountainous area in Nepal.

 Tara Air Viking 9N-AHH Twin Otter was on an 18-minute flight traveling from Pokhara, 80 miles west of Kathmandu, to Jomsom, which is the starting point for trekkers going into mountainous areas, when it lost contact with the control tower, the Associated Press reported.

Flying the aircraft was Capt Roshan Manandhar, a veteran of the region who was reported to be close to retirement.

The Tara Air twin otter wreckage was found at Soli Ghoptebhir in Myagdi district. Aviation Minister Ananda Pokhrel said the plane was found crashed at a junglein jungle of Myagdi district.

Local police say there are no survivors.

The Nepali Tourism and Aviation Minister Ananda Pokharel said a few bodies have been found but are unrecognizable.

It is not clear what caused the crash but Dana VDC and adjoining areas were enshrouded in a cloud of dust on Tuesday following dry landslides in Mt Annapurna South base since Monday night. Tara Air added in a statement,  “It is also known that weather at both origin and destination airports was favourable and the airport was cleared for departure by the control tower at Pokhara,”

In 2012, an Agni Air plane flying the same route from Pokhara to Jomsom crashed, killing 15 people. Six people survived. In 2014 a Nepal Airlines plane flying from Pokhara to Jumla crashed killing all 18 on board.

AirlineRatings prior to this crash scored the airline a 1/7 for safety. The safety rating remains unchanged. For more information on our safety ratings click here.

WATCH: The world's scariest landing in Nepal

The Age of Aerospace

The Age of Aerospace celebrating Boeing’s 100th anniversary is now airing across the globe on Discovery Channel and Discovery Science and online.

The five-part series, explores the advancements in civilian, military and space technology around some of America’s greatest achievements, plus chronicles the history of Boeing and its heritage companies, Douglas, McDonnell, North American, Rockwell and Hughes.

Thus the Boeing group of companies can lay claim to have designed some of the greatest aircraft and spacecraft in history: The DC-3; P-51 Mustang, B-17 Flying Fortress, B-25 Mitchel, B-29 Super Fortress, B-47, DC-6B, 707, Super DC-8s, DC-9, 747, 727, 737, 777, 787, Gemini, Mercury, Apollo spacecraft, Saturn and Delta Rockets, F-4, A-4, F-15, F-18, F-22 jet fighters and C-17 airlifter. 

Read: She taught the world to fly

Produced by the New York based Documentary Group the series is absolutely fascinating for anyone interested in aviation but it is not, nor claims to be, the definitive history of Boeing or aviation.In fact another three episodes are to be produced this year.

The series traces the major events in aviation and Boeing’s pivotal role in shaping the future of things that fly.

The producers have brought together a range of aviation consultants, authors and commentators as well as Boeing executives who add to the excellent narration.

Boeing’s Chairman Jim McNerney and Vice Chairman & President and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes Ray Conner are candid about the highs and lows of various aircraft programs particularly the 787.

AirlineRatings.com Editor and founder Geoffrey Thomas features in eps 1, 3 and 5 (Mr Thomas was formerly a Contributing Editor for McGraw Hill’s New York based Aviation Week and Space Technology).

The episodes are:

Ep 1: What Can't We Do? The premiere episode reveals how Bill Boeing, Donald Douglas, James McDonnell and their contemporaries took the invention of the airplane and forged an industry, delivering advancements in communication, transportation, and warfare.

Ep 2 Miracle Planes details the role American industry and planes, including the B-29, P-51 and the B-17, played in the Allied victory over Germany and Japan.

Ep 3: Shrinking the Earth explores three planes that launched the jet age: the B-47, the 707 and the 747, the world's first jumbo jet that reshaped global air travel. These three planes were made possible by secrets discovered in a German Forest at the close of WWII

Ep 4: In the Vastness of Space tells the story of Project Apollo, which accomplished landing the first humans on the Moon, and humankind’s first journey to the Moon on Apollo 8. Other topics include humanity’s future in space

Ep 5: Dreamliner reveals the technology, resources, and risk required to build commercial aircraft in the modern world through the story of the most recent revolution in jet design, the 787 Dreamliner
 

The episodes can be viewed online here; 

Check your regional or local program guides for broadcast times in your area.
 

Airlines need bigger profits!

Sprit Airbus

Despite record results airlines are only just exceeding the cost of capital and need to make even bigger profits to buy both new aircraft and in the longer term launch new types that will be far more comfortable, provide genuine and sustained reductions in air fares and cut engine emissions.

The airline industry is forecast to make a record 5.1 per cent profit this year – or US$36.3 billion – and achieve a return on capital of 8.6 per cent just above the cost of capital of 7 per cent.

This level of profitability is historic after years of destroying capital which has led to hundreds of airlines either going into bankruptcy, Chapter 11 protection (US) or being forced to merge.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), “achieving returns that barely exceed the cost of capital means that airlines are finally meeting the minimum expectations of their shareholders. For most other industries this is the norm and not the exception.”

Over the past 40 years the airline industry on average has only made about 1.5 per cent net profit.

However the stark reality is that with airlines expected to carry 3.8 billion passengers this year it means they will make on average less than US$10 a passenger profit.

IATA Director General Tony Tyler is absolutely right when he describes this as “fragile rather than sustainable.”

Putting the airlines’ forecast record result of 5.1 per cent into perspective, the world’s 15 most profitable industries according to financial information company Sageworks (published on Forbes.com) are:

Accounting (19.8 per cent net profit); Legal (17.8); Oil and Gas (16.4); Machinery rental and leasing (16.4); Dentists (14.9); Real estate lessors (14.1); Doctors (14.1); Real estate agents (14.1); Other health practitioners (12.1) Management of companies (12.6); Outpatient care (11.7); Schools (11.3); Activities related to real estate (10.8); Death care services (10.7) and Support of mining activity (10.4).

Airlines need bigger profits to both pay long suffering shareholders dividends and order new aircraft. Australia’s Qantas for instance only started to pay shareholders a dividend this financial year after a five year drought.

Designs such as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 are about 25 to 30 per cent more economical to operate than the aircraft they replace yet many airlines have been holding back on orders because of a lack of profits.

More importantly Boeing and Airbus need in the long term to replace the 180-seat 737 and A320 designs that were designed many decades ago.

Continuous upgrades of both types have seen significant reductions in fuel consumption and other efficiencies but that is not as good as a clean sheet design.

And that clean sheet design would also significantly increase passenger comfort.

But launching a new type costs Boeing or Airbus at least US$10 billion and big orders for airlines are essential to getting these off the drawing boards.

In 2011 Boeing launched the latest upgrade of the 737 – the MAX – but while the company wanted an all new design – the 797 – the airlines said no we can’t afford it.

Claims by some consumer groups in the US that flyers are being ripped off are absurd.

Travel has never been cheaper in real terms or compared to average weekly earnings.

For example in 1965 when domestic pure jet service (Boeing 727) in Australia was a few months old, a year’s salary would have purchased nine return flights across the country (Perth to Sydney) – today that number is almost 200! That comparison is true across the globe.

Certainly there is a lag between airlines making sustained reasonable profits and buying new aircraft or re-introducing creature comforts shelved during decades of lean times.

But many airline boards worry that the current profitability will quickly fade as oil prices start to rise again.

IATA’s Mr Tyler was warned that airlines should “enjoy the [current] trading conditions while they last but not get used to them.”

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