The message to the Australian, Malaysian and Chinese governments from the world’s aviation experts on the disappearance of MH370 is as simple as it is blunt — we have the evidence.

“We have the X marks the spots they say they want – of that there is no question and we have had it since November last year,” one expert told AirlineRatings.com

Misguided Malaysia walks away

The Inmarsat satellite tracking data that gave the search team the seventh arc on which the original search area of 120,000km was based two years ago, was not enough in itself to pinpoint the crash site.

That arc stretched for thousands of kilometres down – about 1800km from – the Western Australian coast and meant the search area on the arc was based on a series of carefully worked assumptions about the altitude the plane was flying and its speed.

However, the debris finds over the past 18 months changed everything. 

Breakthrough reverse drift analysis done by Australia's CSIRO of the debris enabled the search team to put a couple of broad crosses on the 7th arc and pinpoint the most likely locations either side of a previously searched area.

That analysis has been lauded around the globe.

This was all detailed in the Australian Transport Safety Bureau’s (ATSB) First Principles report released in December.

That report, authored by what has been described as a dream team of crash investigators and international other experts, identifies an area of just 25,000 sq km just outside and to the north of the original search area.

Contrary to the claims of Australia’s Federal Transport Minister Darren Chester, the strong recommendation from the ATSB and its partners was to search this area.

Yesterday’s shifting of the blame for the cancellation of the search by Mr Chester “to advice from the ATSB” was as cruel as it was incorrect.

“I have relied on the experts from the ATSB and from around the world in terms of guiding my involvement in the decision-making process,” he said at a press conference in Canberra.

Also curious were Mr Chester's comments about some unknown new technology potentially sparking a new renewed search at some. ill-defined time he hoped was prior to the 22nd century.

The simple fact is we already have the technology to find the plane, as oceanographer David Gallo pointed out to AirlineRatings.com. 

Mr Chester even mentioned himself that a couple of previously unidentified shipwrecks were found during the original search.

The resolution available from the towed and autonomous underwater vehicles was such that the searchers were able to locate and photograph objects as small as oil drums and metal boxes. 

This is why the experts who met in Canberra in November last year were able to say with a high degree of confidence that the plane was not in the original search area.
What’s missing here is not the technology but the gumption and the desire to solve this mystery.

An additional A$40-A$50 million cost-shared between three governments is not too high a price to pay to ensure that the all the search possibilities are canvassed in this search.

The assumption is that it was some sort of pilot suicide but what if it wasn’t? 

What if it was some problem with the Boeing 777 that the manufacturer, the airlines and flying public need to know about?

However, it appears a head-in-the-sand Malaysian Government just wants to bury the issue, a timid Australian Government is willing to go along and the Chinese Government simply doesn’t care. 

Together, they've concocted a statement worthy of classic British TV series Yes Minister or the cult movie Catch-22.

As Blaine Gibson, who has found 10 pieces of debris, noted on social media: “There is absolutely no excuse for not searching the new area.”

“The official statement is a fancy way of saying we will not look for it again until we find it.

“It is as comical as it is tragic.”
 

The Australian-led search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 is officially over after the governments of Australia, Malaysia and China ignored the recommendations of international experts and refused to extend it into a new 25,000 sq, km search area.

 Government ministers from the three nations jointly announced  Wednesday that the last search vessel had left the underwater search area despite 11th-hour calls for the sweep to continue.

Not finding MH370 risks lives

Misguided Malaysia walks away

The decision was immediately attacked as irresponsible and a betrayal by a support group for families of victims of the tragedy.

While the announcement left open the possibility the search could be resumed, it failed to specify under what circumstances this could happen.

The remaining search ship, the Fugro Equator,  will now return to Fremantle to demobilise before heading back to Singapore.

Before it left, the ship managed to conduct a limited search of the new area using an autonomous underwater vehicle equipped with sonar.

A joint statement released by Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester noted the plane — which went missing with 239 people on board in March, 2014  — had not been located “despite every effort and using the best science available”.  Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai  and his Chinese counterpart, Li Xiaopeng, were also signatories to the statement.

 “The decision to suspend the underwater search has not been taken lightly nor without sadness,’’ it said. “ It is consistent with decisions made by our three countries in the July 2016 Ministerial Tripartite meeting in Putrajaya Malaysia.

“Whilst combined scientific studies have continued to refine areas of probability, to date no new information has been discovered to determine the specific location of the aircraft. ‘’

The Ministers paid homage to the commitment and dedication shown by the hundreds of people involved in the Australian Transport Safety Bureau-led search and noted it was an unprecedented challenge

“Their tireless work has continued to improve our knowledge of the search area and has been critical in our efforts to locate the aircraft,’’ they said.

They also acknowledged the enormous loss felt by the families.

“We remain hopeful that new information will come to light and that at some point in the future the aircraft will be located,’’ they said.

The decision leaves unsolved the mystery of what happened to the Boeing 777   — which disappeared while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing — and any lessons from its mysterious disappearance unlearned. 

It also ignores the call of global commentators and the recommendation of a high-powered team of international experts that the search should continue into a 25,000 sq. km zone north of the original search area.

The experts identified the site as a potential site for the aircraft debris after reviewing critical new ocean drift data made possible by the discovery of wreckage from the plane. 

They recommended the search continue to exhaust the remaining high probability crash site options.

The families of MH370 victims and Australian investigators also wanted to extend the search but the Ministers indicated the new information was not precise enough to warrant the additional $40 to $50m in funding.

Family support group Voice370 slammed the decision and said a proposed tripartite meeting to work out what to do out about the search appeared to have been a smokescreen.

“Expecting to determine the “precise location of the aircraft” before continuing the search is at best an erroneous expectation and at worst a clever formulation to bury the search, ‘’ the group said.  “Why would you need to search if you already knew the precise location of the aircraft?

“In our view, extending the search to the new area defined by the experts is an inescapable duty owed to the flying public in the interest of aviation safety’’.

Voice370 said stopping at this stage was nothing short of irresponsible and betrayed a shocking lack of faith in the data, tools and recommendation of an array of experts assembled by authorities.

“We appeal to Malaysia, China and Australia to reconsider the decision to suspend the search,’’ it said.

Chester is due to hold a media conference about the decision Wednesday morning but a spokeswoman said he was unavailable for comment Tuesday night.

If the Malaysian government believes that walking away from the search for MH370, which finished today, will make its disappearance go away,  they are mistaken.

In fact if anything, the wave criticism and bizarre cover-up theories will only increase as the months go by.

Certainly, the publicity is hurting the government and its national airline but ignoring MH370 is no fix. 

The Malaysian government’s performance over this tragedy has been a muddled disaster from the outset, and that has only fuelled the conspiracy theorists, who have had a field day.

Almost every utterance – mostly via social media – from the host of Malaysian officials and the military was a PR disaster.

AirlineRatings.com was the first to call for the search to be handed over to Australia and the first to say that the crash investigation run by Malaysia was the worst in aviation history.

The world’s media and others will not let this go.

MH370 will be found – just as a host of famous shipwrecks has been found.

Not helping matters is the plethora of fiction that has been written about this disaster and the search effort.

And that view is supported by noted aviation commentator and former Senior Air Safety Investigator with the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Greg Feith who says the public’s confidence in the search effort has suffered badly.

Speaking with The West Australian yesterday,  Mr Feith said the “credibility of the search effort has been jeopardised.”

He says the problem is: who will carry on the search with so much negativity.

“Australia has done an admirable job [on the search]," he said.

And this view is shared by many in Canberra who say that the Australian government has waned in its enthusiasm because of the unfair criticism of the ATSB’s efforts by local media.

Mr Feith, who led the US team on the Silk Air Flight MI185 suicide crash, adds that the Malaysians were in well over their heads with MH370 and “they were lucky that Australia took over.” 

In fact, the Malaysian air accident division is only 30 per cent compliant with international regulations.

Mr Feith cautions, however,  that even if MH370 is found it may hold onto its secrets.

He says that at a possible depth of 6000m will make recovery extremely difficult.

And he warns that while the flight data recorder should yield information about what occurred with the plane’s systems,  the cockpit voice recorder – which would tell us why – will almost certainly be blank.

Like most in the industry, Mr Feith believes that everyone on the plane had passed out through a de-pressurization event and the CVR, which overwrites itself every two hours, will be blank.

“It is likely that finding the location of MH370 will be no more than a memorial for the relatives which of course is extremely important,”  he said.

Mr Feith also believes that, on the body of evidence available to him, the captain is more likely responsible.

But whomever is responsible for MH370’s disappearance,  Malaysia is being irresponsible in its commitment to the international community and its own aviation industry.

Its attitude by rhetoric and deed has left the once-proud airline system in Malaysia in tatters, and it will be a long time before it recovers.

Only discount pricing is attracting passengers to fly on its airlines.   

There is only one credible option for Malaysia – continue with the search.
 

AirlineRatings.com Editor in Chief Geoffrey Thomas has spoken out on SkyNews about Malaysia walking way from the search for MH370. 

See the video here

Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott says he is disappointed the search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 has been called off.

Abbott tweeted his opinion as Australia’s Transport Minister, Darren Chester, sought to defend the decision to ignore the advice of international experts and end the current search.

“Disappointed that the search for MH370 has been called off,’’ the former PM said. “Especially if some experts think there are better places to look.’’

The Australian-led search was suspended Wednesday after the governments of Australia, Malaysia and China ignored the recommendations of international experts and refused to extend it into a new 25,000 sq, km search area. The search of the initial 120,000 sq.km search area cost about  $200m, with Australia kicking in about $60m, China about $20m and Malaysia providing the rest.

Experts meeting in Canberra last year identified the new search area as a potential site for the aircraft debris after reviewing critical new ocean drift data made possible by the discovery of wreckage from the plane. They recommended the search continue to exhaust the remaining high probability crash site options.

But Ministers from the three countries decided the information was not precise enough to warrant extending the search, despite calls from victims’ families and international commentators to do so.

Asked on the ABC’s AM program, why he wasn’t following the advice of the experts, Mr Chester said: “I would suggest, Kim, this is one of those situations where there is not going to be a perfect answer and, in fact, probably  I’m damned if I do and damned  I don’t.

“If I continue the search effort and came to you today and said I’ve reached an agreement with Malaysia and China to find another $20,$30, $40 or $50 million, you’d be saying to me: ‘Well, why are you spending taxpayers’ money in this way.’.

“But by coming to you and saying we agreed in July last year that in absence of any credible new evidence leading to the specific location the aircraft we intend to extend the search, you’re now asking why won’t you extend it to a new area. I don’t think there’s a perfect answer.’’

On the question of what defined credible new evidence, Chester was vague.

“I think that is the critical question,’’ he said. “And I don’t want to sound dismissive when I say this to you but we will know that when we see it.

“When the experts come to us with evidence that leads us to a more specific location than they’ve been able to provide at this stage, then that will be a question of the Malaysian, Chinese and Malaysian governments to then decide whether we go back out with the underwater search effort..’’

Chester said work was still underway at the Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which led the search, on debris drift modelling as well as analysis of satellite imagery from that time.

“We’re not in a position to tell you whether there will be a technological breakthrough in the future where we’ll be able to search in a different way,’’ he said.

He noted the search area was 2500km off the coast of Western Australia and in depths of more than 4 to 5 kilometres deep with waves sometimes reaching 15 to 20 metres.

“The fact that during that time they’ve been able to locate shipwrecks from the late 1890s and the early 1900s indicates technological breakthroughs obviously from this generation have been able to solve mysteries from many generations ago,” he said. “I hope we don’t have to wait that long to solve this extraordinary aviation mystery.’’

At a later Press conference, The Australian Minister did not rule out a resumption of the underwater search but said this was primarily Malaysia’s call.

“if you have credible new information that leads to a specific location, it will be a matter for the Malaysian government primarily,” he said. “But certainly given the close relationship we’ve had during this process, I would expect some further conversations would occur between Australia and Malaysia and China at the time.’’

Chester said cost was not the deciding factor in the decision, arguing that the governments did not want to be providing false hope to the families and friends.

He also rejected a suggestion the experts behind the original 120,000 sq, km search area had got it wrong, saying people needed to understand the limited amount of data they were dealing with.

“With technology that’s been used, we have very high confidence that aircraft is not located in that search area but they had very little data to work with and they’ve done an extraordinary job,’’ he said.

The decision to suspend the search has been attacked as irresponsible and a betrayal by a support group for families of victims of the tragedy but Chester said those family members he had spoken to in the past 24 hours had been understanding .

Speaking at the same Press conference, ATSB boss Greg Hood said it was anticipated the work on the drift and satellite imagery analyses would conclude by the end of February.

“The ATSB will support any further requests by Malaysia including the examination of any further debris that may come ashore in months to come,’’ he said.

Hood paid tribute to his team at the ATSB, who had “lived and breathed nothing but professionalism, dedication, compassion and optimism that we would locate the aircraft and those on board’’.

“The suspension of the search after more than two and half years will be felt very deeply by all of us,’’ he said.

Malaysia Airlines said in a brief statement it would be “guided” by the governments’ decision to end the search.

“MAS remains hopeful that in the near future, new and significant information will come to light and the aircraft would eventually be located,”the airline said.

Malaysia Airlines was already in deep financial trouble as it entered 2014 and the twin tragedies of flights MH370 and MH17 only made things worse.

The airline had lost $A1.5 billion since 2011 and the crashes saw its loss for the second quarter ending  June 30 of that fateful year burgeon to almost $A100 million as passengers stayed away. 

This was the sixth straight quarterly loss for the airline but it was almost double the loss for the corresponding quarter in the previous year.

The response of the Malaysian government was to re-nationalise the airline and move it into a new company structure.

This saw state-run Khazanah Nasional, which already owned 69.4 per cent of the airline, pay  $A450 million for the remaining 30.6 per cent of the shares and de-list it at the end of 2014.

A few months later, an administrator was appointed to oversee the transfer of assets and liabilities from the existing company to a new vehicle, Malaysia Airlines Berhad.

Then chief executive Christoph Mueller also set about what he called a “hard reset’’ for an airline he said had been technically bankrupt.

In a restructure likened to US Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the airline offered jobs to just 14,000 of its 20,000 staff, sold buildings, shed some planes, reduced the size of aircraft on some routes and cut frequencies on others.

The one change the Malaysians resisted, despite forecasts to the contrary,  was to change the name of the national carrier. 

The airline is now  two-and-a -half years into its recovery and parent company Kahazanah has spent more than RM5 billion($A1.49 billion) of the RM6 billion it set aside for the five-year process.

But Khazanah managing director Azman Mokhtar said the recovery was slightly ahead of schedule, cash flow was increasing and suggested the airline could break even next year.

His comments came after the carrier’s current chief executive, Peter Bellew, said in October there was no need for extra funding from Khazanah because targets were being met.

The restructure has seen significant changes in Malaysia’s fleet and product as it moves to re-focus on growth within  Asia, with China a principal target, and uses codeshare deals with airlines such as Emirates to build its long-haul international network.

one are the long-haul Boeing 777 and 747 passenger aircraft and the airline’s fleet of six flagship Airbus A380 super-jumbos are destined to be reconfigured and leased for religious pilgrimages such as the Haj.  

There are hints the airline could later this year order 25 widebody jets — either Airbus A330neos or Boeing 787 Dreamliners — to progressively replace its 15 Airbus A330-300s and give it the flexibility for growth.

This would be in addition to six long-haul Airbus A350-900s on order as replacements for the A380s on routes such as London. 

The biggest part of Malaysia’s fleet, its narrowbody aircraft, is also getting an upgrade. The carrier has 25 next generation 737 MAX 8s  on order plus purchase rights on 2, Deliveries start in 2019 and these fuel- efficient aircraft fly further than carrier's existing fleet of B737-800s and can carry more passengers.

But as Bellew noted in an interview with Air Transport World last year, the delivery of the new 737s  will mean more than just the arrival of a new aircraft type.

“Malaysia Airlines’ future is now safe and secure,’’ he said “The new aircraft make that a reality for our employees.’’

Bellew told reporters at an industry gathering on Tuesday in Hong Kong that a sales and marketing blitz, combined with new inflight menus and product such as lie-flat business seats, had helped bring customers back.

Confirming that the airline was meeting key performance goals and was on track to return to profitability in 2018, he said its load factor had averaged 82 per cent in the third quarter and 90 per cent in December.  

These sorts of figures look promising in terms the Malaysian government's aim of eventually relisting the airline on the stock exchange.