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MH370: University pinpoints location

By
Geoffrey Thomas

The University of Western Australia, which predicted the landfall of debris from MH370 well over two years ago, has identified a precise location of where it believes the Boeing 777 crashed on March 8, 2014.

On the eve of the third anniversary of  the plane's disappearance with 239 aboard, UWA’s Professor Charitha Pattiaratchi, said that its reverse drift modelling put the location of MH370 “at Longitude 96.5 E Latitude 32.5 S with a 40km radius.”

This UWA location is at the northern end of a new area of 25,000sq km identified late last year by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau as the most likely impact point for MH370.

READ: MH370 search must resume

That new area was arrived at through an independent analysis of the satellite data and the drift analysis from the CSIRO and is close to what is called the 7th arc and bounded by latitudes 33°S to 36°S.

The ATSB and its partners have spent over two years searching an area of 120,000sq km in the Southern Indian Ocean which was based on the hourly satellite communication with the Boeing 777 whereas the new areas of interest overlay reverse drift modelling from the debris finds on the 7th arc. 

“Of the 22 pieces of debris found the location of 18 were predicted by the UWA model,” said Mr Pattiaratchi.

Despite the new analysis from the Canberra meeting, released in ATSB’s First Principles report in December,  Federal Transport Minister Darren Chester, on behalf of the Chinese and Malaysian governments killed off the search.

Mr Chester said the new area identified was not specific enough, which provoked ridicule from around the globe.

The parties involved in the ATSB-led search for MH370 include the British and US crash investigation agencies, Rolls Royce, Boeing, Thales of France, Inmarsat of the UK and the CSIRO.

The ATSB said in December that “the participants of the First Principles Review were in agreement on the need to search an additional area representing approximately 25,000 sq km.”

It added that “based on the analysis to date, completion of this area would exhaust all prospective areas for the presence of MH370.”

Also exhausted is debris hunter Blaine Gibson, who announced last week that he had given up his one-man crusade to find MH370.

Mr Gibson has found over 20 pieces of suspected debris but has received death threats and been accused of planting debris.

Recently Mr Gibson said he was disgusted at the attitude of the Malaysian government in calling off the search and its reluctance to pickup debris he had found. 

“ It’s comical, and it’s tragic,” Mr Gibson said.

The relatives of the victims of MH370 have announced a crowd funding campaign to raise US$15 million to continue the search.
 

MH370: With new data search must resume

By
Geoffrey Thomas

There is no question that the handling by the Malaysian government and its aviation authorities into the loss of MH370 has been sub-optimal.

The first weeks were best described as a shambles with first confusion then contradiction which left relatives of those aboard certain that there was a cover-up.

Certainly the loss of MH370 on March 8, 2014 is unprecedented in modern times but the Malaysian Government’s performance over this tragedy has been a muddled disaster and that has only fuelled the conspiracy theorists, who have had a field day.

Almost every utterance — mostly via social media — from the host of Malaysian officials and military was a PR disaster.

That view is supported by noted aviation commentator and former senior air safety investigator with the US National Transportation Safety Board, Gregory Feith, who told The West Australian last month that the public’s confidence in the search had suffered badly.

However, Australia’s performance in the leading the search for the missing Boeing has won praise from Mr Feith.

“The Malaysian were out of their depth with MH370 and were lucky Australia took over, said Mr Feith.

The revelation from UWA of an almost exact location using reverse drift modelling from the debris, combined with the CSRIO ocean current analysis published late last year gives the governments of Australia, Malaysia and China the “specific spot” they say they are looking for.

Last year when Australia's Federal Transport Minister Darren Chaster called off the search he blamed the Australian Transport Safety Bureau saying he was following its advice.

In fact, the ATSB and its international partner’s strong recommendation was to search the new area identified as the final resting place.

MH370 will be found just as many ships such as the Bismark, HMS Hood, HMAS Sydney and the Titanic were found – it is in our DNA.

Competition watchdog highlights airport profit margins

By
Steve Creedy
border
Australians back international border closures.

AUSTRALIA’S four biggest airports continue to make massive profit margins of up to 73 per cent on parking and have increased the amount they charge airlines to handle passengers by a collective $A1.57 billion over the past decade, the nation’s competition watchdog has found.

All four airports were rated as “good’’ in the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s 2015-16  Airport monitoring report,  marking an improvement for Sydney and Melbourne airports on their ratings in last year’s report as “satisfactory”.

Perth Airport was singled out for a second year of notable improvement but the report showed none of the airports has ever achieved the highest rating of “excellent” and that satisfaction had stayed roughly in the same band.

 The ACCC’s annual report is based on airline and passenger surveys as well as objective measures. It was introduced after privatisation as part of a light-handed regulatory regime over the monopoly operators of Australia's four gateway airports.

Although aeronautical profit margins had fallen at three of the four airports, they still ranged from 46.7 per cent at Sydney Airport to 33.5 per cent in Perth. Brisbane came in at 44.9 percent and Melbourne at 38.2 per cent.

The report found airports were recovering substantially more aeronautical revenue per passenger than a decade ago as they moved to offset increased costs per passenger and grow profit margins.

 “The ACCC estimates that over the past decade, these airports have collected $A1.57 billion more in revenue from airlines than they would otherwise have collected if average prices were held constant in real terms,”  ACCC chairman Rod Sims said. “Despite these much higher revenues per passenger, ratings of service quality are not materially different from those seen a decade ago.”

On the parking front, Sydney Airport continued to make the biggest profit margin of 73.1 cents in the dollar followed by Brisbane (66.1 per cent) Melbourne (59 per cent) and Perth (55.6 per cent).

However, the ACCC found that more consumers were taking advantage of online discounts, particularly for long-term parking, that could be half that of drive-up pricing.

The commission also argued the benefits of an independent operator of Sydney’s proposed second airport at Badgerys Creek.

Sydney Airport has first refusal on the project but there has been increasing speculation it will not take up the option and the government will seek alternative investors or build the airport itself.

“A second international airport competing with Sydney Airport will yield significant benefits to both consumers and airlines,” Mr Sims said.

“On the other hand, a common owner of the two airports would have an incentive to restrict investment and delay the new airport in order to maximise returns from its existing assets.

“If Sydney Airport does not build and operate the new airport, the Government can build the airport and sell the assets once it is already established.”

Welcoming this year’s rating improvement, Sydney Airport chief executive Kerrie Mather said the airport had invested $A3.4 billion in airport improvements since 2002 and planned to invest a further $A1.3 billion in the next five years.

“This investment is delivering improved quality of service ratings during a time of unprecedented passenger growth and we look forward to building on this momentum in the future,’’ she said.

Plans for privately-funded MH370 search

By
Steve Creedy

The families of missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 are hoping to set up a fund to finance a continued search for the Boeing 777.

The move comes after the governments of Australia, Malaysia and China called off the official search in January, despite calls for it to continue.

The search, led by Australian safety investigators, had combed a 120,000 sq. km initial search area in the southern Indian Ocean without finding the plane. A group of international experts had recommended sweeping an additional 25,000 sq. kms identified using new ocean drift modelling but the governments refused to heed the advice.

Other experts subsequently joined the call for the search to continue but without success.

The decision means the disappearance of the plane and its 239 passengers and crew while en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, remains this century’s biggest aviation mystery.

 Jiang Hui, whose mother was on the plane, told CNN on Saturday that relatives were working to create an international fund made up of donations from parties involved in the flight such as governments, plane-maker Boeing and Malaysia Airlines.

"The fund will be invested and the annual investment returns or interests will be used for the search of MH370," Jiang said. "Once the plane is found, the original donation will be returned to the donors, without interest."

There have been a plethora of theories about the fate of MH370 which include a deliberate move by the captain to destroy the plane as well as a possible fire and problems with sensitive electronics.

While there is general agreement there was human input early in the flight there have been disagreements about whether anybody was at the controls prior to it plunging into the sea.

International experts analysing information from satellite handshakes and debris from the plane believe it was uncontrolled when the engines flamed out.
 

Australia sees above average international passenger growth.

By
Steve Creedy

Almost 38 million passengers flew in and out of Australia in 2016 as traffic growth eclipsed historical and global averages. 

Government statistics show that international scheduled passenger traffic for the year hit 37.6 million, up 7.9 per cent on the previous year.

That compared to global air passenger growth in 2016 of 6.3 per cent.

 Sixty international airlines, including five dedicated freight airlines, were offering scheduled services to and from Australia in December, when passenger traffic was 6.7 per cent ahead of the same month a year ago.

But the December growth failed to keep pace with a 7.8 per cent growth in seats for the month to see seat utilisation fall slightly to 82.8 per cent.

How the bigger pie was carved up also saw some minor changes.

The December figures also saw seven of the top 10 airlines with a smaller share of passengers carried than in the same a month a year ago.  The exceptions were China Southern and Etihad, which each grew from 3.1 per cent to 3.2 per cent, and  AirAsiaX, which moved from 3.9 percent to 4.2 per cent.

The Qantas Group’s market share fell below 25 per cent, to 24.7 per cent, and the share of passenger traffic held by Australian designated carriers fell to 30.5 per cent, compared to 31.5 per cent the previous year. 

Also down slightly was the share held by low-cost carriers, from 17.9 to 17.5 per cent.
 

How Slow Can You Go

By
Airline Ratings

Soaring shiraz designed to be drunk at 38,000ft

By
Airline Ratings

Australian vineyard claims a first with wine specifically blended for aircraft consumption

An Australian vineyard believes it has achieved a first by specifically blending a wine to be drunk while an aircraft is in cruise at 38,000ft.

Depending on the aircraft, cabin pressure at that altitude is between 6000ft and 8000ft above sea level and combines with the low humidity to affect the taste buds.

Airlines for some time have designed food to take into account the impact of lower cabin pressure and also select wines with this in mind.

But St Hallett, from Australia’s Barossa Valley region, and Virgin Australia have taken this a step further to blend a wine specifically for consumption at high altitude.

Virgin worked with St Hallett winemaker Shelley Cox to produce a  shiraz the partners say delivers balanced acidity and texture when consumed in the air.

The wine, made from grapes from the Barossa and Eden valleys, was also designed to complement the meals offered in the Virgin’s award-winning business class by chef Luke Mangan.

Read: Virgin Australia takes out major industry awards.

“The drier air in the cabin can make it hard to really capture a wine’s aroma,’’ Cox said. “This is where the Eden Valley component comes in.

“The higher altitude of the Eden Valley means cooler conditions and creates Shiraz with lovely overt floral aromas. You only need a small component to really lift a whole blend.

“We played around with a lot of different options to ensure the acid and texture balance was right. It was a great experience and we are confident the wine will deliver in both taste and aroma on the plane at altitude.”

The wine, labelled The Duo, is already on board Virgin Australia aircraft and in the carrier’s lounges.

Management says losses at the Malaysian carrier are less than expected.

By
Airline Ratings

Executives say turn-around plan is ahead of schedule

Government help means Malaysia Airlines is set to survive. Photo: BBC.

Malaysia Airlines was already in deep financial trouble as it entered 2014 and the twin tragedies of flights MH370 and MH17 only made things worse.

The airline had lost $A1.5 billion since 2011 and the crashes saw its loss for the second quarter ending  June 30 of that fateful year burgeon to almost $A100 million as passengers stayed away.

This was the sixth straight quarterly loss for the airline but it was almost double the loss for the corresponding quarter in the previous year.

The response of the Malaysian government was to re-nationalise the airline and move it into a new company structure.

This saw state-run Khazanah Nasional, which already owned 69.4 per cent of the airline, pay  $A450 million for the remaining 30.6 per cent of the shares and de-list it at the end of 2014.

A few months later, an administrator was appointed to oversee the transfer of assets and liabilities from the existing company to a new vehicle, Malaysia Airlines Berhad.

Then chief executive Christoph Mueller also set about what he called a “hard reset’’ for an airline he said had been technically bankrupt.

In a restructure likened to US Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the airline offered jobs to just 14,000 of its 20,000 staff, sold buildings, shed some planes, reduced the size of aircraft on some routes and cut frequencies on others.

The one change the Malaysians resisted, despite forecasts to the contrary,  was to change the name of the national carrier.

The airline is now  two-and-a -half years into its recovery and parent company Kahazanah has spent more than RM5 billion($A1.49 billion) of the RM6 billion it set aside for the five-year process.

But Khazanah managing director Azman Mokhtar said the recovery was slightly ahead of schedule, cash flow was increasing and suggested the airline could break even next year.

His comments came after the carrier’s current chief executive, Peter Bellew, said in October there was no need for extra funding from Khazanah because targets were being met.

The restructure has seen significant changes in Malaysia’s fleet and product as it moves to re-focus on growth within  Asia, with China a principal target, and uses codeshare deals with airlines such as Emirates to build its long-haul international network.

one are the long-haul Boeing 777 and 747 passenger aircraft and the airline’s fleet of six flagship Airbus A380 super-jumbos are destined to be reconfigured and leased for religious pilgrimages such as the Haj.

There are hints the airline could later this year order 25 widebody jets — either Airbus A330neos or Boeing 787 Dreamliners — to progressively replace its 15 Airbus A330-300s and give it the flexibility for growth.

This would be in addition to six long-haul Airbus A350-900s on order as replacements for the A380s on routes such as London.

The biggest part of Malaysia’s fleet, its narrowbody aircraft, is also getting an upgrade. The carrier has 25 next generation 737 MAX 8s  on order plus purchase rights on 2, Deliveries start in 2019 and these fuel- efficient aircraft fly further than carrier’s existing fleet of B737-800s and can carry more passengers.

But as Bellew noted in an interview with Air Transport World last year, the delivery of the new 737s  will mean more than just the arrival of a new aircraft type.

“Malaysia Airlines’ future is now safe and secure,’’ he said “The new aircraft make that a reality for our employees.’’

Bellew told reporters at an industry gathering on Tuesday in Hong Kong that a sales and marketing blitz, combined with new inflight menus and product such as lie-flat business seats, had helped bring customers back.

Confirming that the airline was meeting key performance goals and was on track to return to profitability in 2018, he said its load factor had averaged 82 per cent in the third quarter and 90 per cent in December.

These sorts of figures look promising in terms the Malaysian government’s aim of eventually relisting the airline on the stock exchange.

New concourse aims to reduce gate wait at Los Angeles

By
Airline Ratings
los Angeles midified concourse
The new midfield concourse

Flyers who frequent the world’s seventh busiest airport in Los Angeles know just because they have landed doesn’t mean they have arrived.

Instead, they discover the terminal gate they expected waiting at Los Angeles International Airport is still occupied.

“Gate capacity is one of the things we are working on,” says LAX spokesman Charles H. Pannunzio. “The Midfield Satellite Concourse (MSC) will help.”

Due to open in late 2019, the 12-gate midfield concourse just broke ground .  The $US1.6 billion, five-level satellite will be connected to the Tom Bradley International Terminal (known locally at TIBIT) by a 1,000 foot (305m)  underground pedestrian tunnel fitted with moving walkways.

The MSC is being built to serve international widebodies, although there will be room enough for smaller single aisle aircraft too.
Two of the 12 gates will be able to handle very large Airbus A380s and Boeing 787-8s.  The rest will be given over to Boeing 777s and 787s, as well as Airbus A330s and A350s.

Pannunzio says the airlines using MSC will vary, and that at times it will accommodate domestic flights as needed.

This sorely-needed satellite terminal will not only create more gate space but cut down the number of times passengers have to motor out to remote gates via bus—not a flyer favorite.  Those remotes don’t have passenger services or amenities.

Los Angeles Board of Airport Commissioners President Sean Burton says: “With nearly 81 million passengers in 2016, and projections for more into the future” the MSC will help “return LAX to iconic status and give passengers the world-class experience they expect and deserve.”

The MSC should be both sunny and smart, offering good views suffused with natural daylight in public spaces.
The smart part is a function of high-tech amenities,  including  flight information displays with scanners that allow passengers to get personalized maps on their boarding passes.

Officials say Beacon technology will work with the new LAX  smartphone app so passengers can easily find where they are going.

Lots of folks will be coming and going at LAX during the two-and-a-half years it’s projected to take to finish the MSC, but the officials say the impact of construction will be “minimal.”

Singapore Airlines axes fuel surcharges

By
Steve Creedy
singapore airlines new product

Frequent flyers will need to outlay less cash as controversial surcharges are folded into base fares.

Changes for Krisflyer members.

Singapore Airlines and regional subsidiary SilkAIr have become the latest carriers to abandon controversial fuel surcharges and reduce the cash component of frequent flyer redemptions.

But the airline is also ending a 15 per cent discount for online redemptions and bumping up the number of miles required to redeem tickets on some routes, including Singapore-Sydney and Singapore-San Francisco.

Travellers redeeming a Sydney-San Francisco business class flight, for example, can now redeem an online ticket for as little as 68.000 miles (80,000 miles through a call centre) but this will rise to 88,000 miles. However, they will save $US327 in fuel and insurance surcharges and just pay airport taxes and fees.

Singapore said Wednesday will fold fuel and insurance surcharges into base fares from March 28. The move will be implemented progressively be region and is due to be completed by May.

The decision will make little difference to people buying airfares as both carriers have for several years been quoting the full price payable, including taxes and charges.

“This will not result in immediate changes to “all-in” fares, which will continue to be determined by market supply and demand, but is intended to provide a more simplified fare structure for customers,’’ the airline said in a statement.

The big difference will be in the surcharge people pay on KrisFlyer frequent flyer program redemption bookings with the fuel and insurance surcharges no longer applying from March 23.

Balancing that gain is a decision by Singapore to axe a 15 per cent discount for redemption bookings made online rather than via a call centre.

The airline is also adjusting redemption award charts in the Saver category to boost the required miles on some routes but not others.

An example on the airline’s website shows that someone redeeming a Singapore-Sydney one-way fare before the change could pick it up for 21,250 miles if booked online (25,000 miles through the call centre) plus $US153 for the fuel and insurance surcharge as well as airport taxes and fees.

Under the system starting March 23, it will cost a flat 28,000 miles plus airport taxes and fees.

Business class one-way on the same route sees a saving of $US172 on insurance and fuel surcharges but sees the number of miles required for a redemption increase from 46,750 online (55,000 through the call centre) to 58,000.

Singapore-Shanghai one-way, on the other hand, loses the 15 per cent discount for online redemptions but the miles required stay at the call centre level of 35,000 for business class and 20,000 for economy.

Travellers on this route also gain from the end of the $US172 business and $US153 economy fuel and insurance surcharges.

See the examples.

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