The International Air Transport Association has significantly updated its forecast for global airline revenue losses stemming from the COVID-19 virus to between $US63 billion and $US113 billion.

That’s up from a previous estimate of about $US29 billion.

The lower forecast assumes COVID-19 is contained to markets with more than 100 cases while the higher figure, which would be equivalent to the global financial crisis,  assumes it spread more widely.

READ: FLYBE in administration as flights cancelled

IATA said airline shares had fallen 25 percent since the COVID-19 outbreak, some 21 percentage points greater than the decline during the 2003 SARS crisis.

But it noted the fall already priced in the shock to industry revenues.

“The turn of events as a result of COVID-19 is almost without precedent,” said IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac.

“In little over two months, the industry’s prospects in much of the world have taken a dramatic turn for the worse.

“It is unclear how the virus will develop, but whether we see the impact contained to a few markets and a $63 billion revenue loss, or a broader impact leading to a $113 billion loss of revenue, this is a crisis.”

The IATA boss said many airlines were cutting capacity and taking emergency measures to reduce costs.

“Governments must take note. Airlines are doing their best to stay afloat as they perform the vital task of linking the world’s economies,” he said,

“As governments look to stimulus measures, the airline industry will need consideration for relief on taxes, charges and slot allocation. These are extraordinary times.”

Even the limited spread would see a big fall in passenger numbers.

IATA said this would include China (-23 percent), Japan (-12 percent ), Singapore (-10 percent ), South Korea (-14 percent), Italy (-24 percent), France (-10 percent, Germany (-10 percent), and Iran (-16 percent).

Additionally, Asia (excluding China, Japan, Singapore and South Korea) would be expected to see an 11 percent fall in demand.

Europe (excluding Italy, France and Germany) would see a 7 percent fall in demand and Middle East (excluding Iran) would see a 7 percent fall in demand,

In the worst-case scenario, Canada and the US would see a comparatively modest 10 percent fall in passenger numbers.

But Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam would collectively see a 23 percent fall in passenger numbers.

The rest of the Asia-pacific would see a 9 percent fall.

In Europe, Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden and the United Kingdom would collectively see a 24 percent fall. The rest of Europe would see a 9 percent decline.

Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Lebanon and the United Arab Emirates would experience a 23 percent crash while the rest of the Middle East would see passenger numbers fall by 9 percent.

The lowest monthly global airline traffic growth since Europe’s volcanic ash crisis in 2010 has prompted a warning it is “just the tip of the iceberg”.

New figures from the International Air Transport Association show demand rose a modest  2.4 percent in January compared to the same month a year ago as the COVID-19 virus started to affect traffic late in the month.

This was down from 4.6 percent year-on-year growth in December and was the lowest monthly increase since April 2010, when the volcanic ash crisis caused massive airspace closures and flight cancellations.

READ: Etihad scolds hero A380 pilots for spectauclar landing

“January was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the traffic impacts we are seeing owing to the COVID-19 outbreak, given that major travel restrictions in China did not begin until 23 January,” IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said.

“Nevertheless, it was still enough to cause our slowest traffic growth in nearly a decade.”

International passenger demand rose 2.5 percent in January with all regions recording growth apart from Latin America.

In the calm before the storm, Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 2.5 percent increase in international traffic while Europe saw a slower 1.6 percent growth and North America was up 2.9 percent.

Domestic demand climbed 2.3 percent as strong growth in the US helped offset a 6.8 percent fall in China due to the first impacts from the coronavirus.

The crisis is also affecting the cargo industry.

Global air freight demand fell 3.3 percent in the month, the 10th consecutive month of falls, putting paid to optimism the easing of tensions between the US and China would give the sector a boost.

IATA is predicting tough times ahead due to the disruption for supply chains by COVID-19 but de Juniac said the cargo sector had “proven its resilience time and time again”.

“The COVID-19 outbreak is a global crisis that is testing the resilience not only of the airline industry but of the global economy,” de Juniac warned.

“Airlines are experiencing double-digit declines in demand and on many routes, traffic has collapsed.

“Aircraft are being parked and employees are being asked to take unpaid leave.

“In this emergency, governments need to consider the maintenance of air transport links in their response.”

De Juniac reiterated a call earlier this week for a suspension of rules governing landing and take-off slots at some 200 airports that handle about 43 percent of passengers.

The rules mean airlines must use 80 percent of the allocated slots or lose them in the next equivalent season but regulators can relax these requirements in extraordinary circumstances.

He also called for relief on airport fees at airports where demand has disappeared.

These were “two important steps that can help ensure that airlines are positioned to provide support during the crisis and eventually in the recovery,” de Juniac said.

The grim figures emerged as airline chiefs held a meeting with US President Donald Trump.

“We had a very positive, constructive dialogue this morning that centered around the safety, health and wellbeing of travelers and the American public,” Airlines For America chief executive Nicholas E. Calio.

“We appreciate President Trump reminding the traveling public that, “where [U.S. carriers] are flying, it’s safe to fly.”

An analysis by airline data experts OAG shows one impact of the crisis is that US carriers are redeploying international widebody aircraft on domestic routes.

It said American was “working hard” to redeploy capacity on routes out of its Dallas-Fort Worth and Los Angeles hubs.

“An alternate deployment strategy from Delta Air Lines sees them placing a large amount of additional frequency into traditional “snowbird” winter markets such as Las Vegas, San Diego and Phoenix,” OAG’s John Grant said.

The impact of the virus on services to Japan continued with Delta reducing its weekly flying schedule through to April 30 and suspending summer seasonal services between Seattle and Osaka for 2020 as a result of reduced demand due to COVID-19.

Reduced frequencies will affect flights between Tokyo and Portland, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Detroit and Honolulu.

Other affected services include Nagoya-Detroit, Osaka-Honolulu, Nogaoya-Honolulu and Tokyo-Manila.

Japanese carriers have also been cutting flights.

Etihad Airways has scolded its “hero A380 pilots” for the spectacular landing at Heathrow during storm Dennis on February 16.

The video posted to YouTube has been seen over 2.5 million times and broadcast by television stations across the globe.

SEE: Stunning air-to-air video of 777X’s first flight.

SEE: Stunning pictures of the Himalayas in spring from 747 pilot.

The airline’s Manager of Flight Crew Training has however sent a memo to all pilots, obtained by AirlineRatings.com, saying this landing was not what the airline wants to see.

“The official view from the Training Department is a simple one – THIS IS NOT WHAT WE WANT TO SEE. There is a time to give an approach away in the interest of safety,” the memo said.

“If you see such a thing in the sim (Simulator) it would be a grade of 1 (out of 10)….”

The A380 has a crosswind capability of 40kts and a crosswind autoland capability of 30kts but some pilots told AirlineRattings that it should not be used used in such conditions “as the response time from a pilot is far quicker.”

However, Claude Lelaie, former Airbus test pilot of 23 years, who spent 14 years as head of flight tests told AirlineRatings.com yesterday that;

1 – We performed 6 landings (in the A380) at Keflavik (Iceland) with max gusts crosswind 56 kt and average wind well above 40 knots. The maximum deviation was 5.4 meters, which demonstrates that crosswind landing is not difficult. It has been limited to 35 knots for various reasons (mainly fan blades vibrations).

2 – It is completely wrong to say that autopilot should not be used. The AP is tuned to perfectly synchronize the flare and the decrab. It does that far more precisely than most of the pilots. I remember a certification flight with a crosswind on the A340-600. 13 autoland perfectly on the centerline, and a last manual landing by a very good certification pilot with a deviation!”

Here is the video again.

Where a pilot faces a crosswind landing they need to point the aircraft in the direction of the wind while maintaining a straight course toward the runway.

This is called crabbing or yawing.

In strong crosswinds, the pilot may also dip the wing – sideslip – into the direction of the wind.

Just before touchdown pilots apply rudder to bring the plane – and its undercarriage – back so it is aligned straight down the centerline of the runway.

This takes great skill and the results – if not done properly – are often quite spectacular as shown in the video of the Etihad A380, where the pilot did not straighten up before touching down.