IATA ’s Director General Willie Walsh has told delegates at the Changi Aviation Summit that we need to look back at the shape of the industry over the past few decades, and then draw conclusions as to what we think might happen going forward.
“Now, if I reflect back at 1990, and I’ve chosen 1990 for a couple of reasons. It recognizes that we had the introduction of the Boeing 737-300, 400 and 500s in the mid-80s, and the Airbus A320 in the late 1980s. It also reflects a fully deregulated market in the US, and a deregulated market in Europe. And it’s fascinating to look at the shape of the industry in that year.
“In 1990, African airlines contributed 2.2% of global aviation. Asia-Pacific carriers were 19.7%, Europe 28%, Latin America and Caribbean 5.4%, Middle East carriers 2.4% and a lot has been written about what has happened in the Middle East. But significantly North American carriers 42% of the global markets.
“Now if we roll forward and look at 2019, Africa continued to be at 2.1%. But we saw significant growth in the Asia-Pacific region, reaching almost 35% of the global market in 2019. Europe remained pretty static at 27%, Latin America 5%, the Middle East has grown from 2.4% to 9.1%, and North American carriers had reduced from 42% to just over 22%,” Mr Walsh told delegates.
He added that the figures for 2023 are broadly similar with Asia Pacific, reflecting the fact that the recovery has been slightly slower in international markets at about 32%.
On domestic markets the change has been dramatic Mr Walsh said.
“Now, it’s interesting also to reflect on the fact that if I look at the major domestic markets, the domestic market in China in 1990 was just over 1% of all global activity, and India about 0.2%. Looking forward at 2023, the Chinese domestic market now represents over 11%, of total commercial aviation, and India has grown to almost 1.8%. We’ve seen significant growth in these markets in that period. And I think when you look at the demographics of the world, it doesn’t take much to imagine what is going to happen in these countries going forward, particularly in India, which I think represents a fantastic opportunity for the industry.”
However, he added that “it is disappointing for us to reflect on the fact that Africa remains in the doldrums at just over 2%. I think the potential for growth in Africa is huge. But there has to be change to enable consumers in the African region to take advantage of the opportunities that aviation provides.”
My Walsh told delegates that aviation is “absolutely committed to achieving net zero CO2 in 2050. And we cannot fail or falter in our efforts to achieve that goal. It is absolutely essential that we work together to ensure that we can credibly provide people with confidence that we have a pathway to decarbonize our industry. And I think we can take a lot of confidence from what we’ve achieved already. And we’ve talked about this in many different forums.
“But just to give you one figure. If you look at the CO2 produced by the industry in 2000, and compare that to what we did in 2019 just before the pandemic, our CO2 footprint increased by almost 54%. But during that same period, passenger traffic grew by 175%. So, there is complete disconnect between passenger growth and our C02 growth. So, we know that we can be confident that with the measures we’ve put in place, with the advances in new technology, there are opportunities for us to address this critical issue.”
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